Food inflation statistics & facts

What is food inflation?

Food inflation is the rate at which the prices people pay for food rise over time. It is usually measured as the annual change in the food component of a consumer price index, comparing prices in one month with the same month a year earlier. Economists often split it into food at home, meaning groceries bought in shops, and food away from home, meaning meals in restaurants, cafes and canteens. At the global level, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) tracks the international prices of key traded food commodities through its Food Price Index.

Food inflation matters more than almost any other price. Food is a necessity that people cannot easily cut back on, and it takes a much bigger share of spending for poorer households. In the United States, households spent 9.7 percent of disposable income on food in 2025, but lower-income households spent 33 percent of their before-tax income on food, compared with 6.4 percent for upper-income households, according to the US Department of Agriculture. In low-income countries such as Nigeria, food accounts for close to 60 percent of household spending. When food prices rise quickly, hunger and poverty rise with them, and governments often face political pressure.

The past five years have seen the biggest food price shock in decades. Global food prices climbed to a record in March 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted exports of grain and sunflower oil, and consumer food inflation reached its highest level in 40 years or more in many countries in 2022 and 2023. Since then, food inflation has eased in most rich economies. But in 2026 world food commodity prices are rising again: the FAO Food Price Index reached 133.3 points in August 2026, its highest level since late 2022, driven by sugar, cereals and vegetable oils. This report sets out the latest data on global food prices, food inflation by country, the drivers behind it and what it means for households.

Global food prices: the FAO Food Price Index

The FAO Food Price Index measures the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, covering cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat and sugar, weighted by their share of world exports. It is expressed as an index with the average of 2014 to 2016 set at 100. Because it tracks prices on world markets rather than in shops, it tends to move before consumer food inflation, which also reflects costs such as processing, transport, packaging, labour and retail margins.

From a record to a new rise: the FAO Food Price Index averaged a record 144.5 points in 2022, eased to 122.0 in 2024 and rose again to 127.2 in 2025.

For several years before the pandemic, global food prices were relatively stable, with the index averaging between about 92 and 98 points from 2015 to 2020. Prices then surged. The index averaged 125.7 points in 2021 as demand recovered from the pandemic and supply chains struggled, a period covered in our report on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy, and a record 144.5 points in 2022, when the war in Ukraine pushed up prices of wheat, maize and vegetable oils. The index peaked at 160.2 points in March 2022, the highest level since records began in 1990.

Prices then fell back to an average of 124.5 points in 2023 and 122.0 in 2024, before rising 4.3 percent to 127.2 points in 2025, driven by higher prices for vegetable oils, dairy and meat. In August 2026, the index stood at 133.3 points, up 1.9 percent from July and 2.5 percent from a year earlier, although still 16.8 percent below its March 2022 peak.

Which food commodities are driving prices

Different foods have moved in very different directions. In 2025, vegetable oil prices averaged 161.6 points, up 17.1 percent from 2024, because of tight supplies of palm, soy, sunflower and rapeseed oil and strong demand for biofuels. Dairy prices rose 13.2 percent to 146.9 points, and meat prices 5.1 percent to 123.2 points, a record high driven largely by beef. In contrast, cereal prices fell 4.9 percent to 107.9 points thanks to good harvests, and sugar prices dropped 17.0 percent to 104.3 points as global supply improved.

Oils and dairy up, cereals and sugar down: vegetable oil prices rose 17 percent in 2025 and dairy prices 13 percent, while sugar fell 17 percent and cereals 5 percent.

The picture has shifted again in 2026. In August 2026, the FAO sugar index jumped 11.9 percent in a single month to 106.4 points, its highest since June 2025, on concerns about hot, dry weather in Europe and Asia and lower production in Brazil. Cereal prices rose 2.2 percent to 116.3 points, the highest since May 2024, as wheat was supported by disruptions to Black Sea exports and weather concerns; international wheat prices were 15.0 percent higher than a year earlier. The vegetable oil index reached 196.9 points, its highest since June 2022, while dairy rose 2.3 percent to 119.2 points and meat 1.0 percent to 127.9 points.

Food inflation by country

Consumer food inflation varies enormously from country to country, reflecting local harvests, exchange rates, energy costs and economic policy. In August 2026, the highest rates among major economies were in Turkey, where food and non-alcoholic beverage prices were 33.8 percent higher than a year earlier, and Nigeria, where food inflation was 19.6 percent. Both countries have experienced sharp falls in their currencies, which raise the cost of imported food, fuel and fertiliser. See our ranking of the countries with the highest inflation rates for the wider context.

From 34 percent to deflation: food prices rose 33.8 percent in Turkey and 19.6 percent in Nigeria in the year to August 2026, but fell 1.4 percent in China.

India recorded food inflation of 5.95 percent in August 2026, above its headline inflation rate of 4.82 percent, with rural households facing higher food inflation, at 6.13 percent, than urban households, at 5.64 percent. Brazil had food inflation of 3.5 percent and Japan 3.1 percent, the lowest in Japan since July 2024, helped by a 15.7 percent fall in rice prices after a record surge in 2025.

In the rich economies of North America and Europe, food inflation has fallen to low levels. It was 2.7 percent in the United States, 1.3 percent in the United Kingdom, the lowest since September 2021, and 1.1 percent for food, alcohol and tobacco in the euro area. In China, food prices fell 1.4 percent, with pork prices down 11.8 percent, although egg prices rose 15.0 percent and beef 5.3 percent. More detail on general inflation is available in our data on inflation rates in selected countries and monthly inflation in developed and emerging economies.

Food inflation in developing countries

High food inflation remains widespread in poorer countries. The World Bank, in its Food Security Update of June 2026, reported that 45.0 percent of low-income countries had food inflation above 5 percent, along with 36.7 percent of lower-middle-income countries and 29.8 percent of upper-middle-income countries. Among high-income countries, only 5.1 percent had food inflation above that level.

The poorer the country, the higher the food inflation: 45 percent of low-income countries had food inflation above 5 percent in 2026, compared with 5 percent of high-income countries.

The World Bank also measures real food inflation, which compares food price growth with overall inflation. In about 14 percent of the 169 countries it analysed, food prices were rising faster than prices in general, with lower-middle-income countries most affected. Because food makes up such a large share of spending in these countries, even moderate food inflation can push millions of people into food insecurity. The World Bank warned in 2026 that fertiliser prices had risen about 35 percent in the first five months of the year, and that a possible El Nino event could cut rice output in vulnerable regions, adding to risks for 2027.

Food inflation in the United States

In the United States, food inflation peaked in 2022, when grocery prices rose 11.4 percent on average, the largest annual increase in more than four decades, according to the USDA Economic Research Service. Restaurant prices rose 7.6 percent. Food inflation then slowed: grocery prices rose 5.1 percent in 2023, 1.2 percent in 2024 and 2.3 percent in 2025, below the 20-year average of 2.6 percent. Restaurant prices have risen faster, by 7.1 percent in 2023, 4.1 percent in 2024 and 3.8 percent in 2025, because labour and rent make up a larger share of their costs. Our data on the monthly US inflation rate covers the wider picture.

Grocery inflation has cooled, restaurants stay higher: US grocery prices rose 11.4 percent in 2022 but are forecast to rise 2.4 percent in 2026, while restaurant prices are expected to rise 3.5 percent.

The USDA forecasts that all food prices will rise 2.9 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of 2.5 to 3.2 percent. Grocery prices are expected to rise 2.4 percent and restaurant prices 3.5 percent, and all food prices are projected to rise 2.0 percent in 2027. In August 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that food prices were 2.7 percent higher than a year earlier, with food at home up 2.2 percent and food away from home up 3.4 percent, against overall inflation of 3.4 percent driven by a 16.3 percent jump in energy prices.

US food prices by category

Average food inflation hides large swings in individual products. In 2025, egg prices rose 21.9 percent in the United States because of outbreaks of avian influenza, which forced farmers to cull millions of laying hens, and beef and veal prices rose 11.6 percent as the national cattle herd fell to its lowest level in decades. Sugar and sweets rose 5.1 percent and nonalcoholic beverages, including coffee, 3.8 percent, while fresh vegetables fell 0.4 percent and fats and oils 0.8 percent.

Eggs swing from boom to bust: egg prices rose 21.9 percent in 2025 but are forecast to fall 29.4 percent in 2026, while beef keeps climbing with a forecast rise of 9.4 percent.

For 2026, the USDA expects the picture to shift. Egg prices are forecast to fall 29.4 percent as flocks recover, while beef and veal prices are expected to rise another 9.4 percent. Fresh vegetables are forecast to rise 5.7 percent, sugar and sweets 6.6 percent and nonalcoholic beverages 4.2 percent, while dairy prices are expected to be almost unchanged, up 0.1 percent. For a sense of how food fits into overall household costs, see our data on the US cost of living.

Food inflation in the UK and Europe

The United Kingdom suffered one of the sharpest food price shocks among rich countries. Annual food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation peaked at 19.2 percent in March 2023, the highest rate in more than 45 years, according to the Office for National Statistics. Over the two years to January 2024, food prices rose by about 25 percent, compared with just 9 percent over the whole previous decade. By August 2026, UK food inflation had fallen to 1.3 percent, the lowest since September 2021, helped by falling prices for chocolate as sugar and confectionery inflation dropped from 11.9 percent in October 2025 to 0.6 percent. Our data on inflation in the UK and UK grocery market shares give more context.

In the euro area, annual inflation for food, alcohol and tobacco was 1.1 percent in August 2026, according to Eurostat, down from a peak of more than 15 percent in early 2023. Unprocessed food prices rose 2.7 percent and processed food, alcohol and tobacco 0.5 percent. Headline euro area inflation, however, rose to 3.2 percent in August 2026, driven by energy. See our data on inflation in Europe and monthly inflation in EU countries.

A dramatic cool-down: UK food inflation fell from 19.2 percent in March 2023 to 1.3 percent in August 2026, and US grocery inflation from 13.5 percent to 2.2 percent.

Staple foods in focus: rice, wheat and cooking oil

Staple foods show how quickly local shocks can hit households. In Japan, a shortage of domestic rice after a poor harvest in 2023, combined with rising demand from tourists and weak government stock releases, caused retail rice prices to roughly double in 2025, prompting the government to release emergency reserves and allow more imports. By August 2026 the situation had reversed, with rice prices 15.7 percent lower than a year earlier, the steepest fall since 2005, helping to bring Japanese food inflation down to 3.1 percent.

Wheat and cooking oils matter most for poorer countries that import much of their food. Wheat prices surged in 2022 when the war in Ukraine blocked exports from two of the largest suppliers, and were again 15 percent higher than a year earlier in August 2026 because of renewed disruption to Black Sea shipping. Vegetable oils, used for cooking across Africa and Asia, reached their highest price since mid 2022 in August 2026. For countries such as Egypt, Nigeria and Pakistan, which depend on imported wheat and oil and have seen their currencies weaken, these increases translate directly into higher bread and cooking costs.

What causes food inflation

Food prices are influenced by a long chain of costs, from the farm to the shop shelf. Understanding these drivers helps explain why food inflation can stay high even after commodity prices fall, and why it can differ so much between countries.

Energy is one of the most important links. The 2022 food shock was driven as much by soaring gas and electricity prices, which raised the cost of fertiliser, processing and transport, as by the war itself. In 2026, energy prices are rising again, up 16.3 percent in the United States and 14.3 percent in the euro area in August, which could feed through into food prices over the coming months. Our data on energy prices in the EU and weekly crude oil prices track these costs.

The impact on households

Food inflation hits poorer households hardest, because they spend a much larger share of their income on food and have less room to cut back. In the United States, lower-income households spent 33 percent of their before-tax income on food in 2024, compared with 6.4 percent for upper-income households, according to the USDA. In many low-income countries, food accounts for half or more of household budgets. When prices rise, families switch to cheaper brands, buy less meat and fresh produce, skip meals or rely on food banks, with lasting effects on nutrition and health.

The cost-of-living crisis of 2022 and 2023 showed how quickly food inflation can affect wellbeing. Even after food inflation fell, prices did not come down: they simply stopped rising as fast. In the United Kingdom, food prices were about 25 percent higher in early 2024 than two years earlier, and in the United States grocery prices were more than 20 percent higher in 2025 than in 2021. For many households, the level of food prices, not just the rate of inflation, remains the main concern, and whether wages keep pace is covered in our report on wages and salaries worldwide.

How governments respond

Governments use a range of tools to limit the impact of food inflation. Central banks raise interest rates to cool overall demand, although they have little direct influence over harvests or world commodity prices. Governments may cut sales taxes on basic foods, provide food vouchers or cash transfers to poorer households, release grain from public stocks or impose price controls. Some food-exporting countries restrict exports to keep domestic prices down, as India did with rice and wheat in recent years, though such measures can raise prices on world markets.

In the longer run, reducing food inflation depends on making food systems more resilient: investing in farm productivity and climate adaptation, diversifying supply chains and trading partners, maintaining open trade, reducing food waste and supporting early warning systems for crop failures and animal disease. International bodies such as the FAO and the World Bank monitor food prices closely and coordinate support for countries facing food crises.

The outlook for food inflation

After falling for most of 2024 and 2025, food inflation risks are rising again in 2026. The FAO Food Price Index is at its highest level since 2022, driven by sugar, cereals and vegetable oils, and higher energy and fertiliser costs could push up food prices over the coming months. Weather is a major uncertainty, with the possibility of an El Nino event adding to risks for harvests in Asia and Africa in 2027.

In rich economies, consumer food inflation is currently low, and the USDA expects US food prices to rise 2.9 percent in 2026 and 2.0 percent in 2027. In many developing countries, however, food inflation remains high, with nearly half of low-income countries facing rates above 5 percent. For households everywhere, the key question is whether the new rise in world food commodity prices will feed through to shop shelves, and how quickly.

Food inflation in numbers

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