Global fertility rate statistics & facts

Global fertility at a glance

Women around the world now have an average of 2.23 children each, according to UN projections for 2026, less than half the level of 4.85 children in 1950. The world is close to the replacement level of about 2.1 children per woman, the level at which a population replaces itself over the long run without migration. Fertility has already fallen below that line in 135 of 236 countries and areas, home to 72 percent of the world population. At the same time, women in Chad, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo still have close to six children on average.

Around 132.5 million babies will be born in 2026, or roughly 363,000 a day. The annual number of births peaked at 146.1 million in 2012 and has been falling since. This report covers fertility rates by country and region, the number of births, teenage births, the reasons behind the decline and the outlook to 2100. It complements our world population statistics with a deeper look at fertility.

Seventy years of falling fertility

Fertility has fallen in every world region since the 1960s, but at very different times and speeds. Global fertility stayed close to five children per woman until about 1970, then dropped quickly to 3.3 in 1990 and 2.75 in 2000. The decline has slowed since, to 2.32 in 2020 and 2.23 in 2026. The dip visible around 1960 reflects the famine in China, when births collapsed for several years.

Africa is the outlier: Africa still averages 3.9 children per woman in 2026, while every other continent is below replacement level.

Europe was the first continent to fall below replacement, in the 1970s, and its fertility rate has hovered around 1.4 to 1.6 children per woman for three decades. Northern America has been close to or below replacement since the 1970s and stands at 1.60 in 2026. The most dramatic declines have taken place in Asia and Latin America, where fertility fell from close to six children per woman in the 1960s to 1.87 and 1.77 respectively in 2026, below the European level of the 1980s. Africa remains the exception at 3.89 children per woman, although that too is down from 6.7 in 1970.

Countries with the highest fertility rates

All of the countries with the highest fertility rates except Afghanistan are in sub-Saharan Africa. Among countries with at least one million people, Chad has the highest total fertility rate in 2026 at 5.84 children per woman, followed by Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo at 5.80, the Central African Republic at 5.69 and Niger at 5.64. Mali, Angola, Burundi, Afghanistan and Mozambique complete the top ten.

Nearly six children: Women in Chad, Somalia and DR Congo have almost three times as many children as the world average.

These countries share high child mortality, low levels of female education, early marriage and limited access to contraception. Fertility is falling in most of them, but from a very high level. In Niger, which had the highest fertility in the world for many years, the UN estimates a fall from 7.8 children per woman in 2000 to 5.6 in 2026. The highest crude birth rates are also found here: the Central African Republic records 44.7 births per 1,000 people in 2026 and Chad 42.2, more than five times the rate in Japan.

Countries with the lowest fertility rates

At the other end of the scale, East Asia has the lowest fertility in the world. Hong Kong (0.75), South Korea (0.76) and Taiwan (0.86) are all below one child per woman in 2026, as are Puerto Rico (0.94) and Singapore (0.97). Ukraine and China are at about 1.0, and Chile, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, Mauritius and Italy are all below 1.25. The lowest figure of all is in Macao at 0.70.

Below one child: In Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan, each generation is set to be less than half the size of the one before.

Fertility this low has never been recorded outside wartime or famine. At 0.76 children per woman, each new generation in South Korea is less than 40 percent the size of the previous one. The causes are widely debated, but they include high housing and education costs, long working hours, the difficulty of combining work and family for women, and later marriage. China has seen one of the fastest falls: fertility dropped from 1.67 children per woman in 2015 to about 1.0 in 2023, and China now records more deaths than births, a trend covered in our report on the global death rate. Our report on the population of China covers this in detail.

Very low fertility is also spreading in Latin America and the Middle East. Chile (1.12) and Argentina (1.51) have seen sharp falls since 2015, and the United Arab Emirates is at 1.21. In 2026, 24 countries and areas have a total fertility rate below 1.3, a level demographers describe as lowest-low fertility.

Fertility in the largest countries

Among the most populous countries, fertility ranges from about one child per woman in China to 4.2 in Nigeria. India, which became the most populous country in 2023, has fallen below replacement for the first time, to 1.98 children per woman in 2023 and a projected 1.93 in 2026. Indonesia stands at 2.08, Brazil at 1.59 and the United States at 1.62. Pakistan, at 3.44, remains well above replacement and is one of the main contributors to future population growth.

From six to one: China has gone from 5.8 children per woman in 1950 to about 1.0 today, and South Korea from 6.1 to 0.76.

In 1950, women in China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan and South Korea all had five to seven children on average. Today, only Pakistan and Nigeria remain above three. In the United States, fertility has fallen from 2.03 in 2000 to 1.62, and births are covered in our report on births in the US. In the United Kingdom, the UN puts fertility at 1.53 in 2026, compared with 2.22 in 1950; long-run figures are in our report on the UK population.

How many babies are born each year

Because the number of women of childbearing age has kept rising, the number of births has fallen much more slowly than the fertility rate. The UN estimates 91.8 million births in 1950, rising to 143.5 million in 1990 and a peak of 146.1 million in 2012. Since then, births have fallen to 132.1 million in 2023, and the UN projects broadly stable numbers of about 132 to 136 million a year until the 2040s, before a decline to 110 million by 2100.

Past the peak: Annual births peaked at 146.1 million in 2012 and are projected to fall to 110 million by 2100.

Births are increasingly concentrated in a few places. India alone accounts for 23.0 million births in 2026, more than one in six worldwide, followed by China with 8.6 million, Nigeria with 7.7 million and Pakistan with 6.9 million. Africa accounts for 36 percent of all births in 2026, and the UN projects that share will rise to 42 percent by 2050, while Asia accounts for 49 percent today and Europe for less than 5 percent.

One in six babies: India records 23 million births a year, almost as many as China, Nigeria and Pakistan combined.

How much of the world is below replacement

The share of humanity living in countries with fertility below 2.1 children per woman has risen rapidly. In 1990, 59 countries were below that level, home to 23 percent of the world population. By 2000 the figure was 89 countries and 46 percent, and by 2023 it was 129 countries and 67 percent. In 2026, 135 countries and areas with 72 percent of the world population are below replacement, and 67 countries with 28 percent of the population are below 1.5 children per woman.

Seven in ten: 72 percent of people now live in a country where fertility is below replacement level, up from 23 percent in 1990.

Global fertility as a whole is now at a turning point. The UN medium variant projects that world fertility will reach 2.1 children per woman around 2050. Some researchers believe the world has already crossed the threshold: a working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research in September 2026 argued that, as of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility for the first time, because recent birth data in several large countries have come in below UN projections. Either way, the long-term direction is clear.

Adolescent births

Births to teenage mothers have declined sharply. According to a BusinessStats calculation from UN age-specific fertility data, the global adolescent birth rate fell from about 75 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 19 in 1990 to about 38 in 2024, and is projected at 37 in 2026. That still means roughly 12 million births to girls aged 15 to 19 every year, not counting births to girls under 15.

Sub-Saharan Africa stands out: The teen birth rate there is 90 per 1,000, ten times the level in Europe and Northern America.

Sub-Saharan Africa has by far the highest adolescent birth rate, at about 90 births per 1,000 girls aged 15 to 19 in 2026, down from 129 in 2000. Latin America and the Caribbean and the Pacific islands follow at about 48. The steepest fall has taken place in Central and Southern Asia, where the rate has dropped from 106 to 23 since 2000, partly reflecting later marriage in India and Bangladesh. The highest rates are found in the Central African Republic, Mozambique and Equatorial Guinea, at about 150 per 1,000.

Why fertility is falling

Demographers point to a set of forces that tend to come with economic development: lower child mortality, so parents no longer need many births to ensure some children survive; more education and paid work for women; urbanisation, which makes children more expensive (see our urbanization statistics); and wider access to contraception. In high-income countries, the costs of housing, childcare and education, insecure jobs and later partnership are now the main factors.

The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) surveyed adults in 14 countries representing 37 percent of the world population for its State of World Population 2025 report. It found that the main barrier was not a lack of desire for children: 39 percent of respondents cited financial limitations as the main reason for having fewer children than they wanted. Job insecurity and fear for the future, including climate change and war, were each cited by about one in five respondents, and one in four said they had been unable to have a child at the time they wanted.

Fertility to 2100

The UN projects global fertility of 2.10 children per woman in 2050 and 1.84 in 2100. Africa is expected to approach replacement level only around 2090, while fertility in Europe and East Asia is projected to recover slightly from its current lows. Because there are still many young people in the world, the global population will keep growing for decades even with fertility at or below replacement, a pattern known as population momentum. Our reports on population growth by country and the global ageing population show how falling fertility reshapes populations, while the life expectancy by country report covers the other half of the demographic transition.

Global fertility in numbers

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