Global deaths and death rates statistics & facts

Global deaths at a glance

About 63.6 million people will die worldwide in 2026, according to UN projections, or roughly 174,000 every day. The global crude death rate, the number of deaths per 1,000 people, stands at 7.7, far below the 19.4 recorded in 1950. Yet the number of deaths is rising again, because the world population is larger and older. The UN expects annual deaths to pass 90 million by 2050 and, around 2084, to exceed the number of births for the first time in modern history.

Death rates differ widely between countries, but not always in the way one might expect. The highest crude death rates are in eastern Europe, where populations are old, while the lowest are in the Gulf states, where populations are young. This report covers the number of deaths, death rates by country and region, the leading causes of death, the impact of COVID-19, and the growing number of countries where deaths outnumber births. It complements our report on life expectancy by country, which measures mortality independently of age structure.

The number of deaths since 1950

The number of deaths worldwide changed surprisingly little for decades. The UN estimates 48.5 million deaths in 1950 and 49.8 million in 1990, even as the world population doubled, because death rates fell sharply. The main exception was the famine in China around 1960, when global deaths spiked to about 54.6 million. Since 2000 the number has risen steadily, from 52.2 million to 58.4 million in 2019, as the large generations born after the Second World War reached older ages.

Doubling ahead: Annual deaths are projected to rise from 63.6 million in 2026 to 91.9 million in 2050 and 122.9 million in 2100.

The UN projects that annual deaths will reach 67.8 million in 2030, 80.0 million in 2040 and 91.9 million in 2050. By 2100 they are expected to exceed 120 million a year. This is not a sign of worsening health: life expectancy is projected to keep rising over the same period. It is the arithmetic of an ageing world, in which a growing share of the population is in the oldest age groups, where death rates are highest.

The COVID-19 mortality shock

The COVID-19 pandemic produced the sharpest rise in deaths in decades. UN estimates show 58.4 million deaths in 2019, 63.5 million in 2020 and 69.7 million in 2021, before a fall to 62.3 million in 2022 and 61.7 million in 2023. Compared with 2019, that means about 5.2 million more deaths in 2020 and 11.4 million more in 2021. The global crude death rate rose from 7.5 to 8.8 per 1,000. The World Health Organization reports that COVID-19 was the leading cause of death worldwide in 2021 but fell to 14th place in 2023, with about 0.9 million deaths. Our report on COVID-19 statistics covers reported and excess deaths by country.

Leading causes of death

Noncommunicable diseases now dominate global mortality. According to the WHO Global Health Estimates published in October 2026, about 61 million people died in 2023, and noncommunicable diseases accounted for 74 percent of all deaths, up from 58 percent in 2000. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause, with about 9.5 million deaths, followed by stroke with 6.8 million and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with 3.6 million.

Heart disease first: Ischaemic heart disease and stroke together caused 16.3 million deaths, more than a quarter of the total.

Lower respiratory infections caused 2.7 million deaths in 2023, back to their pre-pandemic level, and Alzheimer disease and other dementias 2.1 million, making dementia the fifth leading cause of death, up from 19th in 2000. Diabetes caused 2.0 million deaths and lung cancer 1.8 million. Hypertensive heart disease ranked eighth and kidney diseases ninth; deaths from kidney disease rose by 86 percent between 2000 and 2023. The ten leading causes together accounted for 33 million deaths, or 54 percent of the total.

The pattern differs sharply by income. In low-income countries, communicable diseases such as lower respiratory infections, malaria, tuberculosis and HIV still account for seven of the ten leading causes, although for the first time in 2023 they caused less than half of all deaths there. In high-income countries, nine of the top ten causes are noncommunicable. Among children, UN estimates show 4.9 million deaths under age five in 2024, including 2.3 million newborns, with sub-Saharan Africa accounting for 58 percent. Child mortality is covered in our report on child health and nutrition.

Countries with the highest death rates

The highest crude death rates in the world are found in eastern and south-eastern Europe. Among countries with at least one million people, Bulgaria has the highest rate in 2026 at 15.3 deaths per 1,000 people, followed by Latvia (14.8), Serbia (14.3), Moldova and Lithuania (14.2) and Croatia (14.0). Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania, Hungary, Ukraine, Belarus and Russia all record 13 or more.

Old and shrinking: Every country in the top twelve is in eastern or south-eastern Europe, where ageing combines with emigration and high male mortality.

These countries combine an old age structure, the result of decades of low fertility and large-scale emigration of young adults, with relatively high mortality among middle-aged men. Several of them, including Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine and Russia, also have some of the largest gaps between female and male life expectancy in the world. Their high crude death rates are therefore a mix of ageing and genuinely high mortality.

Countries with the lowest death rates

The lowest crude death rates are found in the Gulf states. In the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, there is about 1 death per 1,000 people in 2026, and Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are all between 1.8 and 2.3. Palestine, Jordan and Iraq follow, with rates between 2.9 and 4.2.

Young populations die less: In the UAE and Qatar, large numbers of young migrant workers keep the death rate at about 1 per 1,000.

These low rates mainly reflect very young populations. In the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, less than 2 percent of the population is aged 65 or over, because much of the population consists of working-age migrants. Low crude death rates are therefore not the same as the best health: Japan, which has one of the highest life expectancies in the world, records 12.8 deaths per 1,000 people, because nearly a third of its population is 65 or older.

Deaths by continent

Asia accounts for 34.9 million of the 63.6 million deaths projected for 2026, or 55 percent, roughly in line with its share of the world population. Africa records 11.9 million deaths, Europe 8.5 million, Latin America and the Caribbean 4.6 million and Northern America 3.5 million. Europe has the highest crude death rate of any continent at 11.4 per 1,000, against 7.5 in Africa and 6.8 in Latin America.

Africa goes the other way: Death rates are projected to rise everywhere except Africa, whose young population keeps the rate falling.

Over the next quarter century, the UN expects death rates to rise in every continent except Africa. In Asia the rate is projected to climb from 7.2 to 9.9 per 1,000 by 2050 and in Latin America from 6.8 to 9.5, as their populations age quickly. Europe is expected to reach 13.5. In Africa, by contrast, the death rate is projected to edge down from 7.5 to 7.2, because its population will remain young even as it grows.

Countries with the most deaths

In absolute numbers, China records the most deaths, about 11.5 million in 2026, followed by India with 9.9 million and the United States with 3.1 million. Nigeria, Indonesia, Russia, Pakistan, Brazil, Japan and Germany complete the top ten. China records more deaths than India despite having a slightly smaller population, because its population is older. Population trends in China are covered in our report on the population of China.

China leads: Older and only slightly smaller than India, China records 1.6 million more deaths a year.

When deaths outnumber births

A growing number of countries record more deaths than births each year, a situation known as natural decrease. In 1990 there were only 7 such countries and areas. The number rose to 19 in 2000 and 39 in 2019, and the UN projects 56 in 2026. Together they are home to about 2.3 billion people, or 27 percent of the world population, mainly because China joined the group in 2021.

China loses 2.9 million a year: Deaths in China exceed births by about 2.9 million, more than three times the gap in Japan.

China has by far the largest natural decrease: about 11.5 million deaths against 8.6 million births in 2026, a gap of 2.9 million. Japan records about 817,000 more deaths than births, Russia 655,000, Germany 352,000 and Italy 290,000. In the United Kingdom, births and deaths are roughly in balance, and immigration drives population growth. In Germany, immigration offsets part of the natural decrease, while in Japan, Italy and China the population is shrinking. These dynamics are explored in our report on population growth by country. Low birth numbers are the other half of the story, covered in our report on the global fertility rate.

For the world as a whole, the UN medium variant projects that deaths will exceed births from 2084, the same period in which the global population is expected to peak at about 10.3 billion. In 2026, births still outnumber deaths by about 68.9 million, down from a peak of 93.7 million in 1990.

The lines cross: Deaths are projected to overtake births around 2084, when the world population peaks.

The outlook for deaths

The number of deaths will be one of the defining demographic trends of the coming decades. Health systems will face more deaths from chronic disease, dementia and frailty, and many countries will see shrinking populations. At the same time, death rates at each age are projected to keep falling, so people will continue to live longer on average. The ageing of the population behind this trend is examined in our report on the global ageing population, and the broader context in our world population statistics.

Global deaths in numbers

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