How Big Is the US Economy? GDP Reaches $33 Trillion in the Third Quarter of 2026

Q3 2026 advance estimate: real GDP up 3.4 percent, nominal output at $33.01 trillion

The third quarter number is the first official look at the economy for July to September 2026. BEA says the increase reflected higher investment, consumer spending and government spending, partly offset by a decline in exports. Imports, which are subtracted when GDP is calculated, rose. Within investment, the gains came mainly from private inventories and from equipment, especially information processing equipment such as servers and computers. On the consumer side, spending rose on both services, led by health care and then food services and accommodation, and goods, led by prescription drugs.

Measured in current dollars, GDP increased by 5.6 percent at an annual rate, or about $447 billion, from $32.56 trillion in the second quarter to $33.01 trillion. That is the first quarter in which the annualised value of US output passed $33 trillion. Compared with the third quarter of 2025, real GDP was 2.1 percent higher and nominal GDP 5.9 percent higher, BusinessStats calculations from the BEA levels. For the global ranking behind that figure, see our list of the countries with the largest GDP worldwide, which compares the United States with China, Germany, Japan and India on IMF data.

Source: BEA, GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026, 29 October 2026; Q2 2026 nominal growth from the third estimate of 30 September 2026. Green marks an improvement: faster real growth or slower inflation.

The price measures are as important as the growth rate. In the second quarter of 2026 the PCE price index, the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve targets, rose at a 5.0 percent annual rate, and gross domestic purchase prices rose 5.6 percent. In the third quarter those rates fell to 2.1 percent and 3.0 percent. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased from 3.3 percent to 2.5 percent. Monthly consumer price data for the same period are tracked on our monthly US inflation rate page.

This is an advance estimate based on incomplete source data, and BEA will revise it. The second estimate for the third quarter is scheduled for 25 November 2026 and the third estimate for late December. The first estimate for the fourth quarter and the full year 2026 is scheduled for 28 January 2027.

Real GDP growth by quarter, 2024 to 2026

Quarterly GDP growth in the United States is reported as an annualised rate: the percentage change from the previous quarter, compounded over four quarters. The table and chart below use the current vintage of BEA data, after the annual update published on 30 September 2026, which revised estimates from the first quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2026.

Two soft quarters, then a rebound: growth fell to 0.1 percent in Q1 2025 and 0.2 percent in Q4 2025, but the economy has grown in every one of the last eleven quarters and reached 3.4 percent in Q3 2026.

The path has been uneven. In 2024 the economy grew every quarter, between 1.4 and 3.6 percent. The first quarter of 2025 came close to a contraction at 0.1 percent: private investment added 3.86 percentage points, but the other components together subtracted more than 4 points. Growth then recovered to 4.0 percent in the second quarter and 3.9 percent in the third. The fourth quarter of 2025 slowed to 0.2 percent, as government spending subtracted 1.01 percentage points during the federal government shutdown of October and November 2025. The tariff measures behind the swings in trade are analysed on our page on the economic effects of the 2026 tariffs.

In 2026 the economy has grown at 2.5 percent in the first quarter, 2.2 percent in the second and 3.4 percent in the third. Revisions matter here. The second quarter was first reported at 1.5 percent in July, unchanged in August, and lifted to 2.2 percent in September after BEA incorporated more complete data on investment, consumer spending and government. The first quarter, published at 2.1 percent before the annual update, now stands at 2.5 percent. The fourth quarter of 2025, which BEA reported at 0.5 percent in April 2026, is now 0.2 percent.

Source: BEA news releases of 9 April, 30 July, 26 August, 30 September and 29 October 2026. pp = percentage points.

Contributions to growth: consumers, investment, government and trade

GDP measured from the spending side is the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, government consumption and investment, and net exports, which are exports minus imports. BEA publishes how many percentage points each component added to or subtracted from the quarterly growth rate. Because they add up to the headline number, contributions show what actually moved the economy in a given quarter.

Investment carried Q3 2026: private investment added 3.27 points and consumers 2.52 points, while a widening trade gap subtracted 3.32 points, the largest drag of any component in the period shown.

Consumer spending is the steadiest engine. It added 2.52 percentage points in the third quarter of 2026 and 2.51 points in the second, after only 0.49 points in the first quarter. Private investment is the swing factor. In the third quarter it added 3.27 points, its largest contribution in the period, driven by inventories and by equipment, notably information processing equipment. Much of that equipment goes into the build-out of data centres for artificial intelligence, a trend documented in our data centre statistics and global AI statistics.

Trade worked in the opposite direction. Net exports subtracted 3.32 points in the third quarter, after 1.10 points in the second. In current dollars, the trade deficit in goods and services widened from $880 billion at an annual rate in the second quarter to $1.22 trillion in the third, as exports fell, mainly petroleum and related products, and imports rose. BEA also notes that federal nondefense spending rose in the third quarter because sales of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were smaller than in the second quarter; these sales have no direct effect on GDP because they are offset elsewhere in the accounts.

What US GDP is made of: two thirds consumer spending

Looking at levels rather than growth, the structure of the American economy changes slowly. In the second quarter of 2026, the latest quarter for which BEA has published all four components in current dollars, personal consumption expenditures were $21.99 trillion at an annual rate, or 67.5 percent of GDP. Gross private domestic investment was $5.82 trillion (17.9 percent), government consumption and investment $5.63 trillion (17.3 percent) and net exports minus $880 billion (minus 2.7 percent). In the third quarter, consumer spending reached $22.31 trillion, 67.6 percent of nominal GDP.

Households dominate: consumers account for 65.8 percent of domestic spending and 67.5 percent of GDP; private investment and government each account for about one sixth.

Two features stand out. First, with consumers accounting for about two thirds of output, monthly data on retail sales, incomes and confidence are closely watched as early signals for GDP. Second, the United States runs a trade deficit, so net exports are negative: minus $880 billion at an annual rate in Q2 2026 and minus $1.22 trillion in Q3. The deficit is a measurement identity rather than a direct loss of output: spending on imports is already included in the consumption and investment totals and is removed again through the net exports line.

US GDP by year, 2000 to 2025: from $10.25 trillion to $30.86 trillion

Annual GDP is the average of the four quarterly values. On the current BEA vintage, nominal GDP rose from $10.25 trillion in 2000 to $30.86 trillion in 2025, a threefold increase and a compound annual growth rate of 4.5 percent in current dollars. The economy passed $20 trillion in 2018, $25 trillion in 2022 and $30 trillion in 2025. In quarterly terms, the annualised value of output first exceeded $30 trillion in the first quarter of 2025 at $30.17 trillion.

Two dips in 26 years: nominal GDP fell only in 2009 (minus 2.0 percent) and 2020 (minus 0.8 percent), then rose 11.1 percent in 2021 as the economy reopened and prices climbed.

Nominal growth combines real growth and inflation, which is why the pace looks so different across periods. From 2010 to 2019 nominal GDP grew by about 4 percent a year in most years, while real growth averaged a little over 2 percent, so implied price growth was near 2 percent. After the pandemic, nominal growth jumped to 11.1 percent in 2021 and 9.7 percent in 2022 as prices rose quickly, then slowed to 6.8 percent in 2023, 5.6 percent in 2024 and 5.0 percent in 2025, BusinessStats calculations from the BEA annual series.

Steady but not spectacular: real GDP grew by an average of about 2.1 percent a year from 2001 to 2025, with contractions only in 2009 and 2020 and a peak of 6.3 percent in 2021.

Source: BEA, NIPA Tables 1.1.1 and 1.1.5, annual data, vintage of 30 September 2026. Nominal change is a BusinessStats calculation from the BEA levels.

The annual update of September 2026 changed several numbers that are still widely quoted. Real growth in 2024 is now 3.0 percent rather than 2.8 percent, growth in 2025 is 2.3 percent rather than the 2.1 percent published in April 2026, and the 2021 rebound is 6.3 percent. Nominal GDP for 2025 is $30.86 trillion. Any source that still shows the older figures is using a superseded vintage. How 2.3 percent compares with growth in other economies is shown in our overview of world GDP growth rates.

Nominal $33.01 trillion, real $24.61 trillion: why two numbers

Two GDP levels are published every quarter. Nominal or current-dollar GDP values output at the prices of the period, and it is the figure used to compare the size of economies, to calculate debt or tax ratios and to rank states. Real GDP values output at the prices of a reference year, currently 2017, so that changes reflect volume rather than prices. In the third quarter of 2026 real GDP was $24.61 trillion in chained 2017 dollars, against nominal GDP of $33.01 trillion.

The gap between the two growth rates is the change in the GDP price level. In the third quarter, nominal GDP grew 5.6 percent and real GDP 3.4 percent, implying a rise in the GDP price deflator of about 2.2 percent at an annual rate, a BusinessStats calculation from the BEA levels. In the second quarter the gap was much wider, with nominal growth of 8.5 percent against real growth of 2.2 percent, reflecting the jump in prices that quarter. Growth rates in headlines, forecasts and recession debates always refer to real GDP; dollar levels almost always refer to nominal GDP.

US GDP per capita: $90,252 in 2025

Dividing GDP by the population gives output per person. BEA publishes this figure in its national accounts, using its own mid-period population estimates. GDP per capita was $90,252 in 2025, up 4.5 percent from $86,390 in 2024 and 26 percent higher than in 2021 in current dollars. In the second quarter of 2026, the latest quarter available, it stood at $95,005 at an annual rate. The population used in the 2025 figure is about 342 million people; for the detail behind it, see our US population statistics.

Up $18,836 in four years: nominal output per person rose from $71,416 in 2021 to $90,252 in 2025, although, on BEA real and nominal growth rates, more than half of the increase reflects higher prices rather than higher volume.

GDP per capita is not the same as income per person. It includes depreciation, business profits that are retained by companies and taxes on production, so it is higher than personal income per capita or median household income. It is also an average: it rises if output at the top of the distribution rises, even if typical earnings do not. Wealth at the top of the distribution is covered in our data on millionaires in the US. For international comparisons on a common basis, including purchasing power adjustments, our ranking of GDP per capita by country uses IMF data.

GDP by industry: services produce almost three quarters of output

The production side of the accounts measures value added, the output of each industry minus the goods and services it buys from other industries. Summed across industries, value added equals GDP. In the second quarter of 2026, private services-producing industries accounted for 72.9 percent of GDP, private goods-producing industries, which include manufacturing, construction, mining and agriculture, for 16.3 percent, and government for 10.8 percent.

Real estate leads: real estate, rental and leasing is the largest single industry at 13.6 percent of GDP, because it includes the rental value that homeowners would pay to rent their own homes.

The size of the real estate sector surprises many readers. Most of it is not property sales but housing services, including an imputed rent for owner-occupied homes, which national accounts treat as output so that GDP does not change when people switch between renting and owning. Professional and business services, at 12.7 percent, include legal, accounting, consulting, engineering, computer design and administrative services. Manufacturing produced 9.7 percent of GDP in the second quarter of 2026, up from 9.4 percent in the first quarter.

Shares change slowly, but growth contributions shift every quarter. In the second quarter of 2026, BEA named real estate, rental and leasing (0.57 percentage points) and information (0.52 points) as leading contributors to real GDP growth, followed by durable goods manufacturing and finance and insurance. Transportation and warehousing, retail trade and nondurable goods manufacturing were the main offsets. The information sector, home to software, data processing and telecommunications, has grown from 5.7 percent of GDP in the second quarter of 2025 to 5.9 percent a year later. The largest listed companies in these industries are ranked in our list of the biggest companies in the world by market value.

GDP by state: the ten largest state economies in 2025

BEA also measures GDP for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. In 2025, California had the largest state economy with GDP of $4.30 trillion, 13.9 percent of the national total. Texas followed with $2.93 trillion and New York with $2.47 trillion. Together these three states produced 31.4 percent of US output, and the ten largest states produced 56.7 percent.

Nearly one dollar in seven: California produces 13.9 percent of US GDP, and its $4.30 trillion economy is 1.47 times the size of Texas, the second largest.

Source: BEA, GDP by state, current dollars, 2024 and 2025, vintage of 30 September 2026. Shares and changes are BusinessStats calculations.

The ranking is stable at the top but tight further down. North Carolina, Washington and New Jersey are separated by less than $10 billion, so the order of places nine to eleven can change from one release to the next. In nominal terms, California grew fastest among the ten in 2025 at 6.0 percent, while Texas grew 4.5 percent and Pennsylvania 4.7 percent. When BEA first published 2025 state data in April 2026, real GDP had risen in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, from 3.1 percent in South Carolina and Florida to 0.3 percent in North Dakota.

The quarterly state data are more volatile. In the second quarter of 2026, real GDP rose in 44 states and the District of Columbia, with growth ranging from 4.0 percent in New York, where finance and insurance was the leading contributor, to minus 2.3 percent in West Virginia, where mining was the main drag. A full state-by-state ranking of real growth rates is available on our page on the percent change in US real GDP by state, and the largest metropolitan economies by population are covered in our population of US metropolitan areas data.

Where US GDP is heading: Federal Reserve, IMF and CBO projections

Only projections from official bodies are shown here, each with its publication date and the definition it uses. All three point to real growth a little above 2 percent in 2026 and slower growth later in the decade.

Projections, not outcomes. The CBO figures were prepared in January and February 2026, before the second quarter rise in energy prices. Sources: Federal Reserve Board, IMF World Economic Outlook Table A2, CBO.

The Federal Reserve raised its median projection for 2026 growth from 2.2 percent in June to 2.3 percent in September 2026, with a central tendency of 2.1 to 2.6 percent. The same projections put PCE inflation at 3.7 percent in 2026, falling to 2.3 percent in 2027, and the unemployment rate at 4.1 percent. The median projection for the federal funds rate is 4.1 percent at the end of both 2026 and 2027; the history of the policy rate is covered on our federal funds rate page.

The IMF, in its World Economic Outlook of 13 October 2026, projected US growth of 2.3 percent in both 2026 and 2027, against world growth of 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027. The IMF said that energy-importing economies outside the technology supply chain face the hardest outlook. Its US projection for 2026 is the same 2.3 percent that the US economy achieved in 2025. Price developments in fuel and power are tracked in our US energy prices data. For comparison with the next largest Western economy, see our analysis of the GDP of Germany.

The Congressional Budget Office projected in January 2026 that real GDP would grow 2.2 percent in 2026, up from an estimated 1.9 percent in 2025, helped by the 2025 reconciliation act and by federal spending delayed from the late 2025 shutdown, and would then slow to an average of 1.8 percent a year in 2027 and 2028. CBO expects growth in potential output, the economy at full employment, to average 2.1 percent a year from 2026 to 2030 and 1.8 percent from 2031 to 2036. CBO cites lower net immigration, which slows labour force growth, and expects generative AI to raise productivity in 2027 and 2028. Actual 2025 growth turned out higher than CBO estimated, at 2.3 percent.

How US GDP is measured, and notes on the data

GDP for the United States is produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, part of the Department of Commerce, in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). BEA estimates GDP from the spending side, adding consumer spending, investment, government purchases and net exports, and checks it against gross domestic income, which adds up wages, profits and other incomes. In the second quarter of 2026, real GDI grew 2.6 percent against real GDP growth of 2.2 percent; the average of the two was 2.4 percent.

Each quarter is estimated three times. The advance estimate appears about a month after the quarter ends, the second estimate a month later and the third estimate a month after that. Every September an annual update revises several years of data, and roughly every five years a comprehensive update changes definitions and the reference year for real GDP. Quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted and expressed at annual rates so that they can be compared with annual totals.

US GDP in eight numbers

Questions about US GDP