10-year U.S. Treasury note rates 2019-2025 with forecast 2026

10-year U.S. Treasury note yield from September 2019 to June 2025 with a forecast until June 2026

The 10-year US Treasury note yield rose from a record low near 0.6 percent in 2020 to about 4.4 percent by mid-2025, and forecasts from that time saw it easing toward 4.0 percent by June 2026. In practice the yield held higher, near 4.45 percent. The 10-year Treasury note yield is among the most closely watched numbers in finance, and attaching a forecast to it is a high-stakes exercise, since the projected path shapes decisions on mortgages, corporate borrowing and government budgets long before the actual figures arrive. The series begins in September 2019, on the eve of the pandemic, and runs through the actual data to June 2025 before extending into a forecast, offering a clean before-and-after view of one of the most turbulent stretches in the history of the bond market.

The path from September 2019 traces the pandemic collapse, the inflation-driven surge, and a plateau above 4 percent. The series continues our capital market interest rate overview and our monthly ten-year yield history.

Actual to 2025, then forecast: the 10-year note yield fell to a record low near 0.6 percent in 2020, surged past 4 percent by 2023, and the mid-2025 forecast saw it easing toward 4.0 percent by June 2026.

The forecast to June 2026 assumed the Federal Reserve would keep cutting rates, but long yields proved sticky, themes our ten-year yields by country and federal funds rate overviews explore.

A note on the data. The figures are monthly yields on the 10-year US Treasury note, actual from September 2019 to June 2025 and forecast from July 2025 to June 2026, in percent. Actual outturns are shown where known. The forecast portion, covering July 2025 to June 2026, was a mid-2025 consensus projection, and because that period has since passed, the actual outturns are now known and are shown alongside the forecast to make the comparison clear and honest. All actual figures are monthly averages from the Federal Reserve, while the forecast reflects a mid-2025 consensus, and the comparison between the two is offered transparently rather than presenting the projection as if its outcome were still unknown.

The Yield and Its Forecast, Year by Year

The table shows the 10-year note yield at key points from 2019 to 2026, including the mid-2025 forecast and the actual outturn. It traces the pandemic low, the surge, the plateau, and how the forecast compared with reality. Reading down the table shows the full journey, from the 1.7 percent of late 2019 through the pandemic low, the surge past 4 percent, and the divergence between the mid-2025 forecast and the higher level the yield actually reached. Because the table pairs the forecast with the actual outturn, it makes the comparison explicit, showing at a glance that the yield ended the period higher than the mid-2025 projection had expected across the forecast window.

Did the Forecast Come True?

The mid-2025 forecast did not fully come true. It expected the yield to ease from about 4.4 percent toward 4.0 percent by June 2026, but the actual yield held higher, ending near 4.45 percent as inflation and heavy government borrowing kept long-term rates elevated. Comparing the forecast with what actually happened is one of the most instructive things about this series, because it reveals how even carefully constructed consensus projections can be thrown off when inflation or government borrowing behaves differently than expected. The forecast, made around the middle of 2025, reflected a widespread expectation that the Federal Reserve rate cuts would gradually pull long-term yields lower, a view that seemed reasonable at the time but underestimated the persistence of inflation and borrowing pressures.

The gap between forecast and outturn widened in early 2026, when the yield rose toward 4.6 percent rather than falling, a miss our federal funds rate level coverage helps explain through sticky long-term rates.

The forecast undershot: the mid-2025 forecast expected the yield to ease toward 4.0 percent, but the actual outturn held higher, rising toward 4.6 percent in early 2026 before settling near 4.45 percent.

The lesson is that even consensus forecasts often underestimate how long yields can stay elevated, since long-term rates depend on inflation expectations and government borrowing as much as on the Federal Reserve short-term policy. The episode is a useful reminder that forecasts are best treated as one scenario among several rather than as firm predictions, since the actual path of the yield depends on inflation, government borrowing and global demand for safe assets in ways no model can fully capture. Looking ahead, the central question is whether the yield finally eases toward the levels forecasters have long expected, or whether it remains anchored above 4 percent by persistent inflation and the sheer scale of government borrowing.

How the Yield Moved Each Year

The yield moved through sharp phases. It averaged about 1.8 percent in late 2019, collapsed to 0.9 percent in 2020, surged to nearly 4 percent by 2023, and plateaued above 4 percent through 2024 and 2025, with the 2026 forecast near 4.0 percent. The yearly averages smooth over the sharp monthly swings and reveal the underlying phases, from the pandemic collapse through the inflationary surge to the plateau of recent years, with the forecast pointing to only a gentle decline that largely failed to materialise. The yield averaged about 1.8 percent in the final months of 2019, a level that already seemed low by historical standards but which would soon look high compared with the sub-1 percent readings of the pandemic year that followed.

Each yearly figure hides sharp monthly swings driven by shifting expectations for inflation and Federal Reserve policy, a volatility our primary credit rate coverage tracks alongside the rate cycle.

Collapse, surge, plateau: the yield averaged about 1.8 percent in late 2019, 0.9 percent in 2020, nearly 4 percent by 2023, and above 4 percent through 2024 and 2025.

The jump from an average of 0.9 percent in 2020 to nearly 4 percent by 2023 was one of the fastest increases on record, transforming the cost of borrowing for the government, companies and households in barely three years. The near-flat readings of 2024 and 2025, after the violent moves of 2022 and 2023, lulled many into expecting continued calm, which is precisely why the forecast assumed only a gentle drift lower rather than any further surprise.

From the 2020 Low to the 2026 Forecast

The extremes frame the period. The yield bottomed near 0.6 percent in July 2020, its lowest ever, peaked at about 4.8 percent in October 2023, and the mid-2025 forecast saw it near 4.0 percent by June 2026, though it actually held near 4.45 percent. The extremes of the period, the record low of 2020 and the multi-year high of 2023, sit within a span of just a few years, underscoring how violently the cost of long-term borrowing can move once inflation and monetary policy shift decisively. The July 2020 low of about 0.6 percent stands as the lowest the 10-year yield has ever reached, a product of the emergency Federal Reserve response to the pandemic, while the October 2023 peak near 4.8 percent was the highest since before the financial crisis.

Other landmarks include the starting point of about 1.7 percent in September 2019 and the mid-2025 level of 4.38 percent, points our short-term government securities coverage connects to the broader rate cycle.

Low, peak and forecast: the yield bottomed near 0.6 percent in 2020, peaked at about 4.8 percent in 2023, and was forecast near 4.0 percent for June 2026, though it actually held near 4.45 percent.

The distance from the 2020 low to the 2023 peak, more than four points, captures the extraordinary volatility of the period, one of the widest swings ever seen in the world safest and most liquid government bond. The gap between the forecast low of about 4.0 percent for mid-2026 and the actual level near 4.45 percent, while modest in absolute terms, represented a meaningful miss for borrowers and investors who had positioned for lower rates.

Does the Yield Follow the Fed?

The 10-year yield broadly follows the federal funds rate but with its own path. It surged as the Federal Reserve hiked in 2022 and 2023, and stayed elevated even as the Federal Reserve began cutting in 2024 and 2025, defying forecasts of a larger decline. The relationship between the 10-year yield and the federal funds rate is central to understanding why the forecast undershot, since the long end of the market responded far less to Federal Reserve cuts than the short end, keeping yields stubbornly high. The yield surged alongside the federal funds rate through 2022 and 2023, but as the Federal Reserve began easing in 2024 and 2025, the 10-year barely followed, a divergence that lies at the heart of why the forecast of a decline proved too optimistic.

The gap between the 10-year and the policy rate reflects the market view of future growth and inflation, a relationship our short-term interest rates worldwide coverage sets in a global context.

Long end stayed high: the yield surged as the Federal Reserve hiked in 2022 and 2023, and stayed above 4 percent even as the Federal Reserve began cutting, defying forecasts of a decline.

That the 10-year held above 4 percent even as the Federal Reserve cut rates is why the mid-2025 forecast of a decline undershot, as long yields responded more to inflation and borrowing than to short-term policy. This divergence between the long end and short end of the market is one of the most important lessons of the period, showing that cutting the policy rate does not automatically bring down the borrowing costs that matter most to households and businesses. The path of the yield from here will depend on whether inflation continues to cool and whether the Federal Reserve resumes cutting, but the recent record suggests long-term rates may stay higher for longer than many forecasts assume.

The Phases of the Yield

The period splits into clear phases. The pre-pandemic yield of late 2019 averaged about 1.8 percent, the 2020 to 2021 pandemic era just 1.2 percent, the 2022 to 2023 surge about 3.5 percent, and the 2024 to 2025 plateau about 4.3 percent, with the 2026 forecast near 4.0 percent. Dividing the period into distinct phases helps make sense of the path, since each stretch, from the pandemic to the surge to the plateau, had its own inflation backdrop and its own characteristic level of yields, shaping what any forecast could reasonably assume. The pandemic phase of 2020 and 2021, with yields averaging just over 1 percent, was an extraordinary anomaly created by the emergency response to the crisis, and the subsequent surge simply returned yields toward levels that were normal before the pandemic.

Each phase reflected the prevailing stance of monetary policy, from the emergency cuts of the pandemic to the aggressive hikes of the 2020s, a cycle our central banks coverage frames.

Four phases of the yield: late 2019 averaged about 1.8 percent, the 2020 to 2021 pandemic 1.2 percent, the 2022 to 2023 surge 3.5 percent, and the 2024 to 2025 plateau about 4.3 percent.

The plateau of 2024 and 2025, with yields stuck above 4 percent, marked a new regime after the ultra-low rates of the pandemic, and it was this stubborn plateau that the mid-2025 forecast expected to break but which largely held. The persistence of the plateau, rather than the gentle decline the forecast expected, is the single most important feature of the recent period and the clearest reason the projection fell short of what actually happened.

When the Yield Rose and Fell

Year-to-year changes were dramatic. The yield fell nearly a point in 2020, rose 1.5 points in 2022 and a further point in 2023, then barely moved in 2024 and 2025, with the 2026 forecast pointing to a modest decline of about a quarter point. The size of the year-to-year moves underscores how difficult forecasting the yield really is, since a series that can rise a point and a half in a single year rarely follows the smooth, gentle paths that consensus forecasts tend to project. The near-one-point fall in 2020 and the one-and-a-half-point rise in 2022 were among the largest annual moves in the history of the series, a level of volatility that makes the smooth forecast path for 2026 look optimistic in hindsight.

The swings reflect how sensitive long-term rates are to inflation and policy, with the sharp 2022 to 2023 rise driven by the fastest Federal Reserve hikes in decades, a volatility our financial markets in the US coverage tracks.

Big moves, then calm: the yield fell nearly a point in 2020, rose 1.5 points in 2022 and a further point in 2023, then barely moved in 2024 and 2025.

The near-flat readings of 2024 and 2025 show the yield settling into a plateau, and the forecast of a small decline for 2026 reflected the expectation of further Federal Reserve cuts that only partly materialised in the long end of the market. The contrast between the violent changes of 2022 and 2023 and the near-stillness of 2024 and 2025 captures how the yield can shift from extreme volatility to relative calm, making any single forecast a hostage to which regime prevails.

How Often Was the Yield High or Low?

Across the whole period, the yield spent most of its time between 4 and 5 percent, covering about 33 of the roughly 82 months. It sat below 1 percent for only about 10 months, all during the 2020 pandemic, and between 1 and 2 percent for about 20 months. Counting how many months the yield spent in each band shows just how decisively it shifted from a low-rate to a high-rate regime, with the forecast period firmly in the higher band, a level that would have seemed extraordinary only a few years earlier. The 4 to 5 percent band, which the yield occupied for about 33 months, became the new normal after 2023, a striking contrast with the pandemic era and a level the forecast expected the yield to slip below but which it largely maintained.

The distribution shows how the yield shifted from a low-rate to a high-rate regime, with the sub-1 percent pandemic era giving way to years mostly above 4 percent, a shift our global financial markets coverage frames.

Mostly above 4 percent: the yield spent about 33 of roughly 82 months in the 4 to 5 percent band, and only about 10 months below 1 percent, all in the 2020 pandemic.

That the yield spent so many recent months above 4 percent, including the forecast period, marks a clear break from the pandemic era and underlines why forecasts of a return to lower yields have so far proved too optimistic. The concentration of the forecast period in the 4 to 5 percent band, rather than any move back toward the lower ranges of the past, is the clearest statistical sign of how sticky long-term yields have become.

The Yield Range Each Year

The yield can move a long way within a year. In 2022 it ranged from 1.76 to 3.98 percent, and in 2023 from 3.46 to 4.8 percent, while the 2024 and 2025 ranges were narrower, reflecting the plateau in long-term rates. The width of the yearly range is itself a measure of uncertainty, and the narrowing of that range in 2024 and 2025 lulled some forecasters into expecting a calm, predictable decline that the market ultimately did not deliver. The 2022 range, from 1.76 to nearly 4 percent, was one of the widest in the history of the series, reflecting the speed of the Federal Reserve tightening that year, while the tighter ranges of 2024 and 2025 signalled a market settling into a new equilibrium.

The widest intra-year swings came during the 2020 pandemic and the 2022 tightening, when the yield moved by more than two points inside twelve months, a volatility our debt capital market deal value coverage frames.

Wide, then narrow: the yield ranged from 1.76 to 3.98 percent in 2022 and 3.46 to 4.8 percent in 2023, with narrower ranges in 2024 and 2025 as it plateaued.

The narrowing range in 2024 and 2025 reflects the yield settling into its plateau, and the forecast range for 2026 is narrower still, pointing to a year of relative stability near 4 percent that only partly played out. The forecast assumed the narrow, stable range of 2024 and 2025 would continue and drift gently lower, but the early months of 2026 brought a renewed rise, widening the range and undercutting the projection.

The Yield and Forecast Since 2022

Since 2022 the yield has climbed from below 2 percent to a plateau above 4 percent. It peaked near 4.8 percent in late 2023, eased through 2024, and the forecast saw it drifting toward 4.0 percent by June 2026, though it held closer to 4.45 percent. The period since 2022 is the one most relevant to the forecast, capturing the surge, the peak and the plateau, and it is against this backdrop of stubbornly high yields that the mid-2025 projection of a decline has to be judged. The surge from below 2 percent in early 2022 to a peak near 4.8 percent in late 2023 was the fastest sustained rise in the yield in more than four decades, and the plateau that followed has proved far more durable than the mid-2025 forecast assumed.

The recent path reflects a tug of war between falling inflation, which pulls yields down, and heavy government borrowing, which pushes them up, a balance our global stock markets by country coverage frames.

Surge to plateau: since 2022 the yield climbed from below 2 percent to a plateau above 4 percent, peaking near 4.8 percent in 2023, with the forecast drifting toward 4.0 percent.

The stubbornness of yields above 4 percent, even in the face of Federal Reserve cuts, is the defining feature of the recent period and the main reason the mid-2025 forecast of a gentle decline did not fully materialise. For anyone financing a home or a business, the enduring lesson of the period is that betting on a forecast decline in long-term rates has, so far, been a losing proposition, with yields proving far stickier than expected. Whether the plateau finally gives way to the decline that forecasters expected, or holds firm on the weight of borrowing and inflation, will be one of the defining questions for the cost of money over the coming years.

The Treasury Note in Numbers

A few numbers capture the picture. The 10-year note yield bottomed near 0.6 percent in 2020, peaked at about 4.8 percent in 2023, was forecast near 4.0 percent for June 2026, and actually stood near 4.45 percent. Together these figures make the 10-year note yield, and the forecasts attached to it, a revealing case study in how hard it is to predict long-term interest rates, which depend on forces well beyond the direct control of the central bank.

The figures matter because the 10-year note yield is the benchmark for US mortgages, corporate bonds and global finance, a role our leading investment banks coverage sets against the wider markets.

Together these figures show a yield that collapsed in the pandemic, surged with inflation, and then plateaued above 4 percent, defying forecasts of a return to the lower rates of the previous decade.

The 10-Year Treasury Note: The Big Picture

Taken together, the path of the 10-year Treasury note yield from 2019 to 2026, and the forecast for its future, traces the arc of the US economy through the pandemic and the inflation that followed, a story our gold as an investment coverage sets against other assets.

Whether the yield finally eases as inflation cools or stays high on heavy borrowing will shape the cost of money for years, but the 10-year Treasury note remains the anchor of global finance, alongside the assets in our crypto market and money market fund overviews.

Frequently Asked Questions: Treasury Yield Forecast