Ten year treasury bond rates in the U.S. 2013-2026

Monthly development of ten-year treasury bond rates in the United States from May 2013 to June 2026

The ten-year US Treasury bond rate stood at about 4.45 percent in June 2026, up sharply from a record low near 0.5 percent in 2020. Over the period from 2013 to 2026 it fell to that pandemic low before surging to a peak near 5 percent in late 2023. The ten-year Treasury is the most closely watched interest rate in the world, because it reflects the market collective judgment about the path of inflation, growth and Federal Reserve policy over the coming decade, all distilled into a single number. At about 4.45 percent in June 2026, the rate sits far above the lows of the 2010s and the pandemic, a level that has reshaped the economics of borrowing for households, companies and the federal government, all of which now pay much more to raise money than they did a few years ago.

The ten-year Treasury yield is the single most important interest rate in the United States, setting the benchmark for mortgages, corporate borrowing and government debt. The series builds on our ten-year yields by country overview and our short-term government securities coverage.

From lows to highs: the ten-year US Treasury rate fell from about 1.9 percent in 2013 to a record low near 0.5 percent in 2020, then surged past 4.9 percent in 2023 and sits near 4.45 percent in June 2026.

The rate is driven by inflation, Federal Reserve policy and demand for safe assets, which is why it swung so violently over the period, themes our federal funds rate and federal funds rate level overviews explore.

A note on the data. The figures are approximate monthly average yields on the ten-year US Treasury from May 2013 to June 2026, from US Treasury and FRED data. Daily highs and lows differ from the monthly averages shown. The ten-year constant maturity yield is a standardised measure calculated by the Treasury from the yields of actively traded bonds, which makes it directly comparable over time even as individual bonds are issued and mature, the reason it is the benchmark of choice. All figures are approximate monthly averages, and the June 2026 reading reflects data around mid-year, so the precise level will have shifted since, though the broad picture of a rate that has moved from record lows to multi-decade highs remains accurate.

Ten-Year Treasury Rate at Key Points

The table lists the ten-year Treasury rate at selected points from 2013 to 2026. It traces the fall to the 2020 pandemic low and the sharp climb through 2022 and 2023 to the elevated levels of recent years. Reading down the rate column traces the whole arc of the period, from the taper-tantrum rise of 2013 through the low-rate years, the pandemic collapse to near zero, and the dramatic climb through 2022 and 2023 to the elevated levels of the present day. Because the figures are monthly averages, they smooth out the daily volatility of the market, so the record low and the recent peak shown in the milestones are drawn from daily data and sit slightly beyond the monthly extremes in the table.

How Has the 10-Year Treasury Rate Changed by Year?

On an annual average basis, the ten-year Treasury rate fell from about 2.6 percent in 2013 to a low of 0.89 percent in 2020, then more than quadrupled to about 4.2 percent by 2024. It was one of the sharpest reversals in the history of the bond market. The near-quadrupling of the average rate between 2020 and 2024 is almost without precedent in the modern era, reversing in just a few years a decline in interest rates that had run, with interruptions, for more than three decades since the early 1980s. The annual averages smooth out the sharp monthly swings and make the underlying trend unmistakable, showing a long glide lower through the 2010s, a plunge to the record low in 2020, and then the steepest sustained climb the series has seen in decades.

The steady decline through the 2010s reflected low inflation and easy Fed policy, while the surge from 2022 reflected the fight against the worst inflation in forty years, a swing our primary credit rate coverage connects to the rate cycle.

A dramatic reversal: the annual average rate fell from about 2.6 percent in 2013 to 0.89 percent in 2020, then more than quadrupled to about 4.2 percent by 2024.

The rate has stayed elevated since 2023, near or above 4 percent, even as the Fed began cutting its policy rate, reflecting large US government deficits and lingering concern about inflation over the coming decade. The persistence of high rates despite Fed cuts marks a departure from the pattern of the 2010s, when long-term yields fell in step with policy, and it reflects a market increasingly focused on the long-run supply of government bonds rather than on the current stance of policy. Looking ahead, whether the annual average drifts lower as inflation cools or holds near current levels will depend on the balance between an easing Fed and the relentless supply of new government bonds, a tension at the heart of the current bond market.

How Much Do Rates Move in a Year?

The ten-year rate can move a great deal within a single year. In 2020 it ranged from 1.76 percent in January to 0.62 percent by summer, and in 2022 it more than doubled, from 1.76 percent in January to almost 4 percent by October. The size of the intra-year swings is a reminder that the ten-year rate is a market price, set by millions of investors trading trillions of dollars of bonds every day, and it can move sharply as the outlook shifts, not just gradually from year to year. The contrast between calm years and turbulent ones is stark, with the rate barely moving for months in a quiet year like 2017 but swinging by more than two full percentage points across the course of the crisis year of 2022.

These wide annual ranges show how quickly the outlook for inflation and Fed policy can change, sending the benchmark rate sharply up or down, a volatility our short-term interest rates worldwide coverage tracks across countries.

Wide annual swings: the rate ranged from 0.62 to 1.76 percent in 2020 and from 1.76 to almost 4 percent in 2022, showing how fast the benchmark can move within a year.

The widest swings came in the crisis years, with 2020 and 2022 seeing the rate move by well over a full percentage point, while calmer years like 2017 saw it hold within a narrow band for months at a time.

The Ten-Year Treasury Through the Cycles

Grouping the period into eras makes the story clear. The rate averaged about 2.4 percent in 2013 to 2015, dipped to 1.2 percent in the 2020 to 2021 pandemic, then jumped to 3.5 percent in 2022 to 2023 and above 4 percent since 2024. Dividing the period into eras strips away the monthly noise and reveals the underlying regime shifts, each corresponding to a distinct chapter in the recent economic history of the United States, from slow recovery to pandemic to inflation. The five eras, from the post-taper years through to the higher-for-longer present, together tell the story of how the cost of long-term US borrowing collapsed to record lows and then rebounded to its highest in more than a decade.

Each era reflects a distinct economic backdrop, from the slow recovery of the 2010s to the pandemic emergency and the inflation surge that followed, phases our central banks coverage sets in context.

Regime shifts: the rate averaged about 2.4 percent in 2013-2015, dipped to 1.2 percent in the 2020-2021 pandemic, then jumped to 3.5 percent in 2022-2023 and above 4 percent since 2024.

The jump between the pandemic era and the inflation era, from about 1.2 percent to 3.5 percent, is the sharpest shift in the whole period, capturing the abrupt end of the era of ultra-low interest rates that had prevailed since the financial crisis. The abruptness of the shift from the pandemic era to the inflation era caught many investors off guard, since it reversed in months a low-rate consensus that had held for a decade, inflicting heavy losses on those holding long-term bonds bought at the lows. Taken together, the eras show that the ten-year rate does not drift gently but shifts in distinct regimes, each lasting a few years and each ushered in by a major economic event, from the financial crisis recovery to the pandemic to the inflation shock.

How Often Are Rates High or Low?

Across the 158 months from May 2013 to June 2026, the rate spent most of its time between 2 and 3 percent, with about 10 months below 1 percent during the pandemic and a growing share above 4 percent in the most recent years. The distribution of the rate across bands shows where it has spent most of its time, and the recent migration of months into the higher bands is itself a signal that the long era of low rates has given way to something new and more expensive.

The concentration of months in the 2 to 3 percent band reflects the long stretch of moderate rates through the 2010s, before the recent shift to higher levels, a distribution our financial markets in the US coverage frames.

Most in the middle: across 158 months the rate spent most of its time between 2 and 3 percent, with about 10 months below 1 percent in 2020 and a growing share above 4 percent since 2023.

The rare months below 1 percent, all in 2020, and the growing cluster above 4 percent since 2023 mark the two extremes of the period, the pandemic collapse and the inflation-driven surge that followed. The clustering of recent months in the higher bands, above 4 percent, suggests that this is not a temporary spike but a new regime, one in which the cost of long-term borrowing sits structurally higher than it did throughout the 2010s.

The Biggest Yearly Moves

Year-to-year, the biggest fall in the average rate was about 1.25 points in 2020, as the pandemic drove yields to record lows, while the biggest rise was about 1.5 points in 2022, as the Federal Reserve raised rates to fight inflation. The year-to-year changes capture the drama of the period more vividly than the levels alone, since a move of a full percentage point in the benchmark rate ripples through mortgages, corporate borrowing and government finances alike. The record annual fall of 2020 and the record rise of 2022 sit back to back in the series, a whipsaw of historic proportions that reflected first the deflationary shock of the pandemic and then the inflationary surge that followed the reopening of the economy.

The scale of these annual moves, well over a full point in the crisis years, underlines how sensitive the benchmark rate is to shifts in inflation and Fed policy, a link our global financial markets coverage describes.

Record falls and rises: the biggest annual fall was about 1.25 points in 2020, and the biggest rise about 1.5 points in 2022, back-to-back swings of historic scale.

The pattern of sharp falls followed by even sharper rises captures the whole arc of the period, from the deflationary fears of the pandemic to the inflation shock that reversed decades of falling interest rates in barely two years. The whipsaw of a record fall in 2020 followed by a record rise in 2022 is unique in the recent history of the series, and it left a deep mark on financial markets, contributing to one of the worst years for bond investors on record in 2022.

The Ten-Year and the Fed Funds Rate

The ten-year rate broadly tracks the federal funds rate but with its own dynamics. It rose above 4 percent as the Fed hiked to more than 5 percent in 2023, and has stayed elevated even as the Fed began cutting, reflecting deficits and sticky inflation. The relationship between the ten-year and the federal funds rate lies at the heart of monetary policy, because the Fed controls only the very shortest rates directly, and must rely on the bond market to transmit its policy to the long-term rates that matter most for the economy. Through 2022 and 2023 the Fed raised its policy rate above 5 percent, the highest in over two decades, dragging the ten-year up with it, before the central bank began cutting in late 2024, though long-term yields proved far stickier than short-term ones.

The gap between the ten-year and the policy rate reflects expectations for growth and inflation over the next decade, a relationship visible in the debt markets our debt capital market deal value coverage tracks.

Long yields stay high: the ten-year rose above 4 percent as the Fed hiked past 5 percent in 2023, and has stayed elevated even as the Fed began cutting.

That the ten-year has held near 4.5 percent even as the Fed cut rates in 2025 and 2026 is unusual, and reflects investor concern about the sheer scale of US government borrowing and the outlook for inflation. This unusual persistence of high long-term rates despite an easing Fed has become a defining feature of the current cycle, and it poses a challenge for policymakers, since it keeps borrowing costs high for households and businesses even as the central bank tries to ease.

When Did the Yield Curve Invert?

The yield curve inverted from 2022 to 2024, with the ten-year rate falling below the two-year, a classic warning of recession. The gap turned deeply negative in 2023 before the curve steepened back to positive in 2025. The yield curve, the gap between long and short rates, is one of the most reliable recession indicators in economics, which is why its inversion from 2022 drew such intense scrutiny from investors and policymakers watching for signs of a downturn. The 2022 to 2024 inversion was among the deepest and longest on record, with the ten-year falling well below the two-year for an extended stretch, a pattern that in the past had reliably signalled a coming recession, though this time the downturn was slow to arrive.

An inverted curve, where short-term rates exceed long-term ones, has preceded most US recessions, which is why the 2022 to 2024 inversion drew so much attention, a signal our debt market by currency coverage sets against the funding backdrop.

The 2022-24 inversion: the ten-year fell below the two-year from 2022 to 2024, a classic recession warning, before the curve steepened back to positive in 2025.

The return of a positive curve in 2025, with the ten-year once again above the two-year, suggested markets expected the Fed to keep cutting short-term rates while long-term yields stayed high on inflation and deficit concerns. The steepening of the curve in 2025 was watched closely for what it signalled, since a return to a normal upward-sloping curve can mark either the approach of a recession or a healthy normalisation, depending on whether it is driven by falling short rates or rising long ones.

The Ten-Year Since 2022

Since 2022 the ten-year Treasury rate has been on a rollercoaster, more than doubling from 1.76 percent in early 2022 to almost 5 percent in October 2023, before settling into a range around 4 to 4.6 percent through 2025 and into 2026. The period since 2022 has been the most turbulent for the ten-year Treasury in a generation, compressing into a few short years a full cycle of surging rates, an inverted curve and a plateau at levels not seen since before the financial crisis. From its early-2022 level of about 1.76 percent the rate climbed relentlessly through the Fed hiking cycle, peaking near 5 percent in October 2023 before easing back into a range that has held, broadly, from late 2023 through the middle of 2026.

The surge and the plateau reflect the Federal Reserve fight against inflation and the higher-for-longer rate environment that followed, a shift our global stock markets by country coverage sets against equity markets.

A rollercoaster: the rate more than doubled from 1.76 percent in early 2022 to almost 5 percent in October 2023, then settled into a range around 4 to 4.6 percent.

Most striking is how the rate has stayed high, near 4.5 percent, even as inflation cooled and the Fed began to cut, a sign that the era of ultra-low borrowing costs that defined the 2010s is firmly over. The plateau at elevated levels since 2023 has forced a broad rethink across the economy, from homebuyers facing the highest mortgage rates in two decades to companies refinancing debt issued when borrowing was nearly free, a costly adjustment still under way. Whether the rate can be sustained near current levels or eases as inflation fades will be one of the defining questions for the US economy, shaping the cost of everything from home loans to the interest bill on the national debt for years to come.

Record Lows and Highs

The record low for the ten-year rate came in 2020, when it fell to about 0.52 percent as the pandemic drove investors into safe assets. The recent peak came in October 2023, when it touched about 4.98 percent, the highest since 2007. The extremes of the period, the near-zero low of 2020 and the near-five-percent peak of 2023, bracket one of the widest ranges the ten-year rate has ever traversed in such a short span, a measure of how extraordinary the recent economic environment has been. The 2020 low of about 0.52 percent stands as the lowest ten-year Treasury yield in the history of the United States, a level once thought almost impossible for the world benchmark bond, reached at the height of the pandemic panic.

Between these extremes the rate has spanned an enormous range, from near half a percent to almost five percent, capturing the full sweep of the period, milestones our developed and emerging share price index coverage sets in context.

From 0.5 to 5 percent: the record low was about 0.52 percent in August 2020, and the recent peak about 4.98 percent in October 2023, the highest since 2007.

The 2016 low of about 1.37 percent, reached after the Brexit vote, and the 2018 peak of about 3.24 percent mark earlier turning points, showing how the rate had already swung widely even before the dramatic moves of the 2020s. The earlier turning points, the 2016 post-Brexit low and the 2018 peak, are reminders that the ten-year rate was already prone to sharp swings before the pandemic, driven by shifting expectations for growth, inflation and the path of Fed policy.

The Ten-Year Treasury in Numbers

A few numbers capture the picture. The ten-year Treasury rate was about 4.45 percent in June 2026, down from a peak near 5 percent in 2023 but far above the record low of 0.52 percent in 2020 and the 1.9 percent at which it started in 2013. These figures together map the cost of long-term borrowing in the United States over more than a decade, a benchmark that touches almost every corner of the economy, from the mortgage on a family home to the financing of the federal government itself.

The rate matters because it sets the cost of long-term borrowing across the US economy, from mortgages to corporate bonds, and serves as the global benchmark risk-free rate, a role our gold as an investment coverage sets against other assets.

Together these figures show a benchmark rate that fell for years, hit record lows in the pandemic, then surged to its highest in over a decade, reshaping the cost of borrowing for households, companies and the government alike.

The Ten-Year Treasury Rate: The Big Picture

Taken together, the monthly path of the ten-year Treasury rate from 2013 to 2026 traces one of the most dramatic interest-rate journeys in modern history, from the low-rate 2010s through the pandemic to the inflation surge, a story our largest asset managers coverage sets against the investors who hold these bonds.

Whether the rate falls as inflation cools or stays high on heavy government borrowing depends on the Fed and the fiscal outlook, but the ten-year Treasury remains the benchmark for US and global finance, alongside the assets in our money market funds and crypto market overviews.

Frequently Asked Questions: 10-Year Treasury Rate