Market yield on 10-year U.S. treasury securities 1970-2026

Market yield on 10-year treasury securities in the United States from 1970 to 2026

The market yield on 10-year US Treasury securities peaked near 15.8 percent in 1981, during the Great Inflation, then fell for four decades to a record low of 0.5 percent in 2020. By June 2026 it had rebounded to about 4.45 percent as inflation returned. This single series, the market yield on the 10-year Treasury note, is often called the most important number in global finance, because it anchors the price of everything from home mortgages to corporate bonds and serves as the benchmark risk-free rate against which all other investments are judged. The story it tells spans more than half a century, from the inflationary turmoil of the 1970s, when the yield climbed relentlessly, through the disciplined disinflation engineered by the Federal Reserve, to the extraordinary lows of the pandemic and the sharp reversal that has followed.

The long arc of the 10-year yield is the story of US inflation, rising through the 1970s, crushed by the Federal Reserve in the 1980s, and drifting lower until the pandemic. The series extends our monthly ten-year yield history and our ten-year yields by country overview.

Peak, decline, rebound: the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to near 15.8 percent in 1981, fell for four decades to a record low of about 0.5 percent in 2020, and rebounded to roughly 4.45 percent by 2026.

The yield reflects inflation, Federal Reserve policy and the demand for safe assets, and it sets the cost of mortgages and corporate debt, themes our federal funds rate and central banks overviews explore.

A note on the data. The figures are annual average market yields on 10-year US Treasury securities at constant maturity from 1970 to 2026, based on the Federal Reserve FRED series, in percent. The 2026 value is a partial-year average. The constant-maturity methodology means the series always reflects a freshly issued ten-year note, making it directly comparable across the decades even as individual bonds are issued and mature, which is what allows a clean comparison between 1981 and 2026. All figures are annual averages of the daily series, so they smooth over the considerable movement within each year, and the 2026 value covers only the first half of the year, meaning it may change as the rest of the year unfolds.

10-Year Treasury Yield, Year by Year

The table shows the 10-year Treasury yield at key points from 1970 to 2026. It traces the climb to the 1981 peak, the long decline that followed, the pandemic low, and the recent rebound above 4 percent. Reading down the years shows the full sweep of the series, from the 7 percent yields of the early 1970s up to the 15.8 percent peak of 1981, down through the long decline to the 0.9 percent average of 2020, and back up above 4 percent in the mid-2020s. Because the table shows annual averages, it understates the peaks and troughs reached on individual days, such as the 15.84 percent high of September 1981 and the 0.52 percent low of July 2020, both of which were more extreme than any full-year average.

How Have Yields Changed by Decade?

Yields have shifted dramatically by decade. They averaged about 7.5 percent in the 1970s, peaked at 10.6 percent in the 1980s, then fell steadily to 6.7 percent in the 1990s, 4.5 percent in the 2000s, and just 2.4 percent in the 2010s, before rising again in the 2020s. Grouping the data by decade strips away the year-to-year noise and reveals the long secular trend, showing with unusual clarity how the cost of long-term borrowing rose relentlessly through the 1970s, peaked in the 1980s, and then fell for a generation before turning higher again in the 2020s. The 1980s stand out as the peak decade, with yields averaging more than 10 percent, more than four times the average of the 2010s, a gap that captures the enormous change in the inflationary environment between the two periods.

The decade averages show the long disinflation clearly, with each decade from the 1980s to the 2010s bringing lower yields, a descent our federal funds rate level coverage tracks alongside monetary policy.

A generational decline: yields averaged about 7.5 percent in the 1970s, peaked at 10.6 percent in the 1980s, then fell to 6.7, 4.5 and just 2.4 percent through the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s.

The 2020s have broken the pattern, with the decade average rising to about 3.2 percent so far, the first sustained increase in more than forty years, as the post-pandemic inflation surge reversed the long decline in borrowing costs. The reversal of the decades-long downtrend in the 2020s is arguably the single most important development in the bond market in a generation, forcing borrowers, investors and governments to adjust to a world where the cost of long-term money is no longer falling. Whether the 2020s ultimately record a higher average than the 2010s will depend on the path of inflation and Federal Reserve policy over the second half of the decade, but the early years have already marked a decisive break with the falling-yield trend.

The Highest and Lowest Yields Since 1970

The extremes define the history. The 10-year yield peaked at 15.84 percent in September 1981, its highest ever, and bottomed at about 0.5 percent in July 2020, its lowest. Between those two points lies one of the greatest declines in the history of the bond market. The distance between the 1981 peak and the 2020 trough is staggering, a fall of more than fifteen percentage points, and it represents one of the longest and most consequential trends in the history of financial markets, spanning four decades and reshaping the global economy. The 1981 peak of 15.84 percent is almost impossible to imagine for anyone who came of age in the low-rate world of the 2010s, when a yield above 3 percent seemed high, underscoring just how far the bond market has travelled over the decades.

Along the way, yields fell below 8 percent in 1986, below 5 percent in 1998, below 3 percent in 2011, and below 1 percent in 2020, a steady descent our primary credit rate coverage connects to falling inflation and Fed policy.

From 15.8 to 0.5 percent: the yield peaked at 15.84 percent in September 1981 and bottomed near 0.5 percent in July 2020, one of the widest declines in financial history.

The 1981 peak came as the Federal Reserve, under Paul Volcker, pushed interest rates to record highs to break double-digit inflation, a shock that set the stage for the four-decade decline in yields that followed. The Volcker shock of the early 1980s remains the defining episode in the history of the series, a deliberate decision to accept a deep recession in order to break inflation, which succeeded and set in motion the long bull market in bonds that followed.

Why Do Yields Track Inflation?

Yields track inflation closely over time. When inflation raged in the 1970s and early 1980s, yields soared above 10 percent, and as inflation fell to low single digits from the 1990s on, yields followed it down, bottoming when inflation was lowest. The tight relationship between yields and inflation is the single most important thing to understand about the 10-year Treasury, because it explains almost every major move in the series, from the inflationary surge of the 1970s to the disinflation that followed and the recent post-pandemic spike. The decade averages of yields and inflation move almost in tandem, with the high-inflation 1970s and 1980s producing high yields and the low-inflation decades that followed producing low ones, a correspondence that leaves little doubt about what drives the series.

The link is fundamental, because investors demand a yield that compensates for expected inflation plus a real return, so periods of high inflation bring high yields, a relationship our short-term interest rates worldwide coverage frames globally.

Yields track inflation: when inflation raged in the 1970s and 1980s, yields soared above 10 percent, and as inflation fell to low single digits, yields followed it down.

The recent rise in yields since 2020 followed exactly this logic, as the post-pandemic inflation surge, the worst in forty years, pushed the 10-year yield from below 1 percent back above 4 percent in barely three years. The episode since 2020 has been a powerful reminder that the link between inflation and yields never went away, even after decades of low and stable prices, and that the bond market can reprice with startling speed once inflation returns. For investors, the enduring lesson is that inflation is the master variable for the bond market, and that any forecast of where the 10-year yield is heading must begin with a view on where inflation is going over the coming years.

The Great Eras of the Ten-Year Yield

The history splits into clear eras. The Great Inflation from 1970 to 1981 saw yields average about 8.4 percent, the disinflation from 1982 to 1999 about 8.2 percent, the Great Moderation from 2000 to 2019 about 3.4 percent, and the pandemic era since 2020 about 3.2 percent. Dividing the history into distinct monetary eras helps make sense of the long sweep, since each period had its own inflation regime, its own Federal Reserve approach, and its own characteristic level of yields, from the double digits of the Great Inflation to the near-zero rates of the 2010s. The Great Inflation era, running from 1970 to the 1981 peak, saw yields more than double as investors demanded ever higher compensation for the erosion of their money, before the Federal Reserve finally acted decisively to restore price stability.

Each era reflected the prevailing inflation and policy regime, from the runaway prices of the 1970s to the price stability of the 2000s and 2010s, a cycle our short-term government securities coverage tracks at the shorter end.

Four eras of borrowing: yields averaged about 8.4 percent in the Great Inflation, 8.2 percent in the disinflation, 3.4 percent in the Great Moderation, and 3.2 percent in the pandemic era.

The transition from the high-yield decades to the Great Moderation was gradual but profound, halving the cost of long-term borrowing over a generation and reshaping the economics of housing, business investment and government debt. The boundaries between these eras are not always sharp, but the broad progression from high inflation and high yields to low inflation and low yields, and now back toward higher yields, captures the essential rhythm of the past five decades.

How Much Yields Moved Within Each Decade

Yields moved a long way within each decade. In the 1980s the 10-year ranged from about 7.7 percent to 13.9 percent, and in the 2020s from a low of 0.9 percent to about 4.5 percent, showing how much the cost of borrowing can shift even within ten years. The size of the moves within a single decade underscores that the 10-year yield, despite backing the world safest asset, is anything but stable, capable of doubling or halving over ten years as the inflation outlook and the stance of monetary policy shift beneath it. The 1980s were the most volatile decade, with the yield swinging from nearly 14 percent at the start to below 8 percent by the end, a collapse that rewarded early bondholders enormously as the value of their high-yielding bonds soared.

The widest swings came in the volatile 1980s, when yields fell by more than 6 points across the decade, and in the 2020s, a range our financial markets in the US coverage sets in context.

Wide swings every decade: in the 1980s the yield ranged from about 7.7 to 13.9 percent, and in the 2020s from 0.9 to about 4.5 percent, showing how far borrowing costs can move.

The decade ranges show that even the world safest bond is far from a fixed-rate instrument, with its yield repricing sharply as inflation and policy shift, sometimes by several points within a single decade. For anyone financing a home, a business or a government over the long term, the lesson of these decade-sized swings is that locking in a rate is always a gamble on where inflation and policy will go over the years that follow.

What About Real Yields After Inflation?

After adjusting for inflation, real 10-year yields tell a different story. They were highest in the 1980s and 1990s, above 3.5 percent, as yields stayed high while inflation fell, and turned slightly negative in the 2020s, when inflation outran yields. Adjusting for inflation transforms the picture entirely, because a high nominal yield during a period of high inflation may deliver little real return, while the seemingly modest yields of some later decades actually rewarded lenders more once falling prices are taken into account. Real yields, calculated as the nominal yield minus inflation, reached their most attractive levels in the 1980s and 1990s, when the Federal Reserve kept rates high even as inflation was falling, handing patient bond investors unusually generous real returns.

Real yields matter because they measure the true return to lenders after inflation, and the negative real yields of the 2020s meant investors in Treasuries lost purchasing power, a squeeze our global financial markets coverage frames.

Negative in the 2020s: real yields, after inflation, were highest in the 1980s and 1990s above 3.5 percent, and turned slightly negative in the 2020s when inflation outran yields.

The high real yields of the 1980s rewarded bondholders handsomely as inflation fell, while the low or negative real yields of the 2010s and 2020s reflected central banks holding rates below inflation to support growth. The shift from the high real yields of the 1980s to the negative real yields of the 2020s marks a profound change in the deal offered to savers, from generously rewarding those who lent to the government to quietly eroding their purchasing power.

How Often Were Yields High or Low?

Across the whole period, yields spent most years in the 6 to 8 percent band, covering much of the 1970s and 1990s. Yields exceeded 8 percent in twelve years, mostly in the 1980s, and fell below 2 percent in only four years, all since 2012. Counting how many years the yield spent in each band reveals just how abnormal the recent past has been, since the sub-2 percent yields that defined the 2010s and the early 2020s had literally never occurred in the previous half-century of the series. The single most common range for the yield was between 6 and 8 percent, a band it occupied for sixteen of the fifty-seven years, spanning much of the 1970s and 1990s and reflecting what was, for most of the period, a fairly normal level of borrowing costs.

The distribution shows how unusual the recent low-yield years were, with sub-2 percent yields unheard of before 2012, a shift our developed and emerging share price index coverage complements.

Most years above 4 percent: yields spent sixteen years in the 6 to 8 percent band, exceeded 8 percent in twelve years, and fell below 2 percent in only four years, all since 2012.

That yields spent so many years above 6 percent is a reminder that the ultra-low rates of the 2010s were the exception, not the rule, in the longer history of the 10-year Treasury. Viewed across the full half-century, the message is clear, that yields near or above the long-term average of about 3 percent are entirely normal, and that it was the decade of near-zero rates, not the recent rise, that was the true anomaly.

The Ten-Year Yield Since 2000

Since 2000 the 10-year yield has fallen from about 6 percent to a low of 0.9 percent in 2020, then climbed back to about 4.45 percent by 2026. The modern era captures both the tail of the long decline and the sharp recent rebound. The period since 2000 is the one most relevant to today borrowers and investors, capturing the tail end of the long decline, the extraordinary near-zero rates that followed the financial crisis and the pandemic, and the sharp rebound that has redefined the cost of money. The years since 2000 have contained some of the most dramatic moves in the entire history of the series, including the plunge to record lows during the pandemic and the fastest sustained rise in yields in more than forty years that followed.

The post-2000 path reflects the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis, years of near-zero policy rates, and the post-pandemic inflation surge, events our debt capital market deal value coverage frames in the bond market.

Decline, then rebound: since 2000 the yield fell from about 6 percent to a record low of 0.9 percent in 2020, then climbed back to about 4.45 percent by 2026.

The rebound since 2020 has been the sharpest in decades, lifting yields from record lows to their highest since 2007 and marking a clear break from the long era of falling borrowing costs. The speed of the rebound since 2020 caught many investors off guard, particularly those who had come to assume that ultra-low rates were permanent, and it inflicted heavy losses on holders of the long-dated bonds issued during the cheap-money years. Looking ahead, the central question is whether yields have settled at a new, higher plateau reflecting persistent inflation and heavy government borrowing, or whether they will resume the long decline that defined the four decades before 2020.

The Ten-Year and the Fed Funds Rate

The 10-year yield and the federal funds rate have moved together over the decades, but not in lockstep. Both peaked around 1981, with the funds rate above 16 percent, and both fell to near zero after 2008, though the 10-year rarely fell as low as the policy rate. Comparing the 10-year yield with the federal funds rate over the decades shows the difference between the short end, which the Federal Reserve controls directly, and the long end, which reflects the market collective judgment about inflation and growth over the coming ten years. Both the 10-year yield and the federal funds rate peaked together around 1981, but the funds rate climbed even higher, above 16 percent, as the Federal Reserve pushed short-term rates to punishing levels to wring inflation out of the economy.

The gap between the two, the term premium, has widened and narrowed over the cycle, and at times the funds rate has risen above the 10-year, inverting the curve, a signal our global stock markets by country coverage tracks.

Long end vs short end: both the 10-year yield and the federal funds rate peaked around 1981, with the funds rate above 16 percent, and both fell near zero after 2008.

The long history shows the 10-year yield as steadier than the policy rate, which swings more sharply with the Fed decisions, while the 10-year reflects longer-run expectations for inflation and growth over the coming decade. The relative stability of the 10-year compared with the funds rate reflects its role as a gauge of long-run expectations, smoothing out the sharp swings in short-term policy into a steadier signal about where inflation and growth are heading.

The Ten-Year Treasury in Numbers

A few numbers capture the picture. The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 15.84 percent in 1981, bottomed at about 0.5 percent in 2020, averaged roughly 2.9 percent over its full history, and stood near 4.45 percent in June 2026. Together these figures make the 10-year Treasury yield one of the most revealing single indicators in economics, compressing into one number the market verdict on inflation, growth and monetary policy across more than half a century of American economic history.

The figures matter because the 10-year yield is the benchmark for US mortgages, corporate bonds and global finance, a role our leading investment banks coverage sets against the wider markets.

Together these figures show a yield that soared in the inflationary 1970s and 1980s, fell for forty years as inflation was tamed, and has now rebounded to levels not seen since before the financial crisis.

The Ten-Year Treasury Yield: The Big Picture

Taken together, the market yield on 10-year US Treasury securities from 1970 to 2026 traces the arc of the US economy, from the Great Inflation through the long disinflation to the pandemic and its aftermath, a story our gold as an investment coverage sets against other assets.

Whether yields settle at a new higher plateau or resume their decline depends on inflation and Federal Reserve policy, but the 10-year Treasury remains the anchor of global finance, alongside the assets in our crypto market and money market fund overviews.

Frequently Asked Questions: 10-Year Treasury Yield