Estimated population of England and Wales in 2026, by religion

Estimated population of England and Wales in 2011 and 2026, by religious faith

The religious make-up of England and Wales has changed more dramatically in the past decade and a half than at almost any comparable period in its long history. In 2011, nearly 60% of the population identified as Christian and only a quarter reported no religion, a balance that had held in broad terms for generations. By 2026, the estimated figures show Christianity falling to around 41%, now roughly level with the 41% who report no religion, while the Muslim share has climbed to about 7.5% to become the largest non-Christian faith. This represents the end of Christianity as the clear majority faith and the emergence of a genuinely diverse, largely secular society in which no single religious identity commands a majority. For a country with an established church and centuries of Christian heritage, this is a profound and historically significant shift. The wider continental picture is explored in our religion in Europe analysis.

These estimates are projected from the two most recent censuses, in 2011 and 2021, which captured the pace of change with unusual clarity. The 2021 census made headlines around the world when it revealed that, for the first time in the history of the census, fewer than half the population described themselves as Christian, at 46.2%, down from 59.3% in 2011. The announcement, coming just weeks after Britain appointed its first Hindu prime minister, was widely seen as a landmark moment in the country's long secularisation. Projecting the same trend forward to 2026 suggests Christianity and "no religion" have now converged at roughly equal shares, a remarkable milestone in a country with an established Christian church, echoing the marriage shifts in our Catholic weddings in Germany by partner religion analysis. The trend in belief itself is covered in our belief in God in Great Britain analysis.

This article sets out the estimated population of England and Wales by religion in 2026 and compares it with 2011, examining the steep decline of Christianity, the rapid rise of those with no religion, the growth of Islam and other minority faiths, and the forces driving these changes. It also looks at the important caveats around census religion data, which measures affiliation rather than active belief or practice. The global context of faith is discussed in our world religions analysis.

Population by Religion: 2011 vs 2026

The table sets the 2011 census actuals against the 2026 estimates for each religious group. The most striking rows are Christianity, falling from 33.3 million (59.3%) to an estimated 25.5 million (41.5%), and "no religion", rising from 14.1 million (25.2%) to around 25.5 million (41.5%), the two effectively swapping places in relative terms over the period. What was a near two-to-one Christian advantage in 2011 has become a dead heat by 2026. Islam shows strong growth from 2.7 million to an estimated 4.6 million, while the smaller faiths of Hinduism, Sikhism, Buddhism, and Judaism remain modest but mostly stable or slightly growing. These figures are projections from the census trend. The broader population picture is in our world population analysis.

Comparing the Faiths: 2011 Against 2026

The comparison makes the scale of the shift impossible to miss. In 2011, Christianity towered over every other category at nearly 60%, with no religion a distant second at a quarter and all other faiths small by comparison. By 2026, that dominance has gone: Christianity and no religion sit side by side at around 41% each, having essentially traded relative positions over fifteen years. No other comparable Western country has seen its dominant historic faith decline quite so rapidly in census terms. The minority faiths, led by Islam, have grown but remain a much smaller part of the picture, meaning the headline story is overwhelmingly one of Christians becoming non-religious rather than converting to other faiths. The German parallel is in our Evangelical Church members in Germany analysis.

The Steep Decline of Christianity

The defining feature of the data is the steep decline in the number and share of Christians. In 2011, some 33.3 million people, or 59.3% of the population, identified as Christian; by the 2021 census this had fallen to 27.5 million (46.2%), the first time in the history of the census that fewer than half the population described themselves as Christian. Projecting forward, the 2026 estimate puts Christians at around 25.5 million, or roughly 41% of the population, an extraordinary fall of some 18 percentage points in just fifteen years. Few major demographic indicators move that far that fast.

This decline does not mean millions of people abandoned active churchgoing, since most of those who ticked "Christian" in earlier censuses were never regular worshippers but rather identified culturally with the faith of their upbringing. Britain had already become a largely non-practising society long before the census numbers caught up, so what the figures really capture is the fading of nominal, cultural Christian identity rather than a sudden collapse in active faith.

What has changed is that this cultural Christian identity is no longer being passed down, with younger generations far more likely to tick "no religion" than their parents or grandparents. The chain of inherited religious identity that sustained nominal Christianity for centuries has broken within the space of a couple of generations. The fall is therefore as much about the weakening of inherited cultural identity as about any change in active belief, and it has been steepest among the young, a pattern that parallels our religious change in Spain analysis. The financial side of church decline is in our Catholic Church tax revenue in Germany analysis.

The Rapid Rise of "No Religion"

The mirror image of Christianity's decline is the dramatic rise of those reporting no religion at all. In 2011, around 14.1 million people, or 25.2% of the population, said they had no religion; by 2021 this had surged to 22.2 million (37.2%), an increase of twelve percentage points in a single decade, one of the largest shifts ever recorded between two censuses. This pace of secularisation is striking by any international standard. The 2026 estimate puts the non-religious at around 41%, now level with Christianity as the joint-largest group, a position that would have seemed unimaginable a generation ago in a country with an established church and a monarch who is its supreme governor. The speed of the change has caught many observers by surprise, unfolding over just two census cycles.

The rise of the non-religious has been especially pronounced in Wales, where the "no religion" share reached 46.5% in 2021, even higher than the England and Wales average, overtaking Christianity there outright to become the single largest category. Wales has long had a distinctive religious history, and it has secularised even faster than England in recent decades. This growth is driven overwhelmingly by generational change, as each new cohort of young people is markedly less religious than the one before, and by the declining transmission of religious identity from parents to children. Unlike the rise in some minority faiths, which is partly fuelled by immigration, the growth of "no religion" reflects a genuine secularisation of the native-born population, much as recorded in our population of Finland by religious community analysis. The German church decline mirrors this in our share of Catholics in Germany analysis.

The Growth of the Muslim Population

The most significant growth among the active faiths has been in the Muslim population, which has risen steadily to become the largest non-Christian religion in England and Wales. In 2011, around 2.7 million people, or 4.9% of the population, were Muslim; by 2021 this had grown to 3.9 million (6.5%), an increase of 44% in a decade. The 2026 estimate puts the Muslim population at around 4.6 million, or roughly 7.5% of the total, continuing the strong upward trend driven by immigration and a relatively young age profile. Of all the religious groups, Islam has shown the most consistent and substantial growth in absolute numbers over the period.

The Muslim population accounted for around a third of the overall population growth of England and Wales between 2011 and 2021, reflecting both immigration and a younger age structure with higher birth rates than the population as a whole. This combination of inward migration and a youthful demographic profile means the Muslim share is likely to keep rising in the coming decades, even as the overall society becomes more secular. The two trends of secularisation and growing Muslim numbers are not in tension, since they affect largely different parts of the population.

Muslims remain concentrated in particular areas, with the largest communities in cities such as Birmingham, Bradford, and several London boroughs, and London remains by far the most religiously diverse region of the country, with over a quarter of its residents reporting a religion other than Christianity. Despite this growth, it is important to keep the scale in perspective: even at 7.5%, the Muslim population is a small fraction of the total, far smaller than either the Christian or non-religious groups which each stand at around 41%. The headline transformation of British religion is overwhelmingly about secularisation rather than the growth of minority faiths. This makes England and Wales, and London especially, one of the most religiously diverse societies in Europe.

Hindus, Sikhs, Jews, and Buddhists

Beyond Christianity, Islam, and the non-religious, England and Wales is home to several smaller but well-established faith communities. Hindus form the next largest group after Muslims, rising from around 818,000 (1.5%) in 2011 to about 1.0 million (1.7%) in 2021 and an estimated 1.15 million by 2026. The Hindu community in Britain is well established, with deep roots in commerce, the professions, and public life, including the country's first Hindu prime minister. Sikhs numbered around 524,000 (0.9%) in 2021, up modestly from 423,000 in 2011, while the Jewish population has remained broadly stable at around 271,000 (0.5%), and Buddhists at around 273,000 (0.5%). These communities have changed little in relative terms, holding steady even as the larger groups have shifted dramatically.

These minority faiths together make up a small but important part of England and Wales's religious diversity, each with deep historical roots and distinctive geographic concentrations. The Hindu and Sikh communities are strongly associated with South Asian heritage and are concentrated in parts of London, the Midlands, and other urban centres, while the Jewish community has long-established centres in north London and Manchester. Each of these communities has its own distinctive history, institutions, and patterns of settlement built up over many decades. Although individually small, together with the Muslim population they make England and Wales, and London in particular, one of the most religiously diverse societies in Europe, a diversity that has grown steadily over the past two decades. London alone is home to substantial communities of every major world faith, making it one of the most religiously plural cities on the planet. The demographic backdrop is in our US population by sex and age analysis.

The Full 2026 Religious Breakdown

The full 2026 breakdown shows just how evenly Christianity and no religion now share the top of the table, together accounting for over 80% of the population between them. Islam sits a distant third at around 7.5%, followed by the "not stated" category at roughly 5.4%, and then the smaller faiths of Hinduism, Sikhism, Buddhism, and Judaism, each below 2% of the population. Together these minority faiths account for well under a fifth of the total, underlining that the dominant dynamic is the Christian-to-secular shift.

This shape, two roughly equal dominant groups with a long tail of smaller ones, is characteristic of a society in transition from a Christian majority to a secular plurality, with growing but still modest religious diversity alongside. It captures a country mid-way through a historic shift, no longer Christian by default but not yet settled into any new equilibrium. It is a profoundly different picture from the overwhelmingly Christian self-identification of just a few decades ago, when ticking "Christian" was the unthinking default for the great majority of the population. That default has now disappeared.

What Is Driving These Changes?

The transformation of religion in England and Wales is driven by several distinct but reinforcing forces. The single most important factor is generational change and secularisation: each successive generation is markedly less religious than the one before it, and as older, more Christian cohorts pass away they are replaced by younger, far more secular ones. This generational turnover, combined with the declining transmission of religious identity from parents to children, accounts for the bulk of both the Christian decline and the rise of the non-religious. Surveys consistently show that the youngest adults are by far the least likely to identify with any religion, so as they replace older generations the overall figures shift steadily towards secularism.

A second major factor, working alongside generational change, is immigration, which pushes in a different direction for different groups. Immigration from more religious parts of the world, particularly South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, has boosted the Muslim, Hindu, and other minority faith populations, partly offsetting the overall secularisation. At the same time, the religion question's voluntary nature and the way people interpret cultural versus active religious identity also shape the figures. The net effect is a country becoming simultaneously more secular, as cultural Christianity fades, and more religiously diverse, as immigration adds new faith communities, two trends unfolding at once.

These two trends, secularisation and diversification, are the key to understanding the data, and they explain why the country can be becoming both less Christian and more religiously varied at the same time. The decline of Christianity is overwhelmingly a story of cultural Christians becoming non-religious, while the growth of minority faiths is largely a story of immigration and younger age profiles among those communities. The two processes are largely independent of one another, which is why they can both be true at once without contradiction. Together they are reshaping England and Wales from a society with a clear Christian majority into one with two large, roughly equal blocs of Christians and non-believers, as well as a growing patchwork of minority faith communities. This is a fundamentally new kind of religious landscape, one without a dominant majority and with genuine plurality for the first time in the nation's history. The economic backdrop is in our global economy analysis.

Important Notes About the Data

It is essential to understand what the census religion data does and does not measure. The census question asks about religious affiliation or identity, not about belief in God or active religious practice, so a person who ticks "Christian" may never attend church or hold any active faith, while someone who believes in God might nonetheless tick "no religion". This means the census measures cultural and social identity more than genuine faith, and the figures should not be read as a direct measure of how religious the population truly is in terms of belief or worship. The gap between affiliation and practice in Britain is famously wide, with many who tick a religious box rarely if ever attending a service.

A further important point is that the religion question is voluntary, and around 6% of people choose not to answer it, which is why "not stated" forms a meaningful category in its own right. This voluntary nature means response patterns can shift over time independently of any real change in belief, adding a further layer of caution to any interpretation. People may answer differently in different years for reasons unconnected to their actual faith, so even the direction of small changes should be read carefully.

The 2026 figures are also estimates, projected from the 2011 and 2021 census points rather than measured directly, so they should be treated as indicative of the trend rather than precise counts of any given year. The true 2026 figures could differ somewhat, though the overall direction is not in doubt. The next census, due in 2031, will provide the next firm data point and allow these projections to be tested against reality. Until then, the 2026 estimates represent the best available reading of where the trend has reached. For all these reasons, the figures are best understood as capturing the broad direction and scale of religious change rather than exact percentages, though the overall story of secularisation and diversification is beyond doubt. The trend is consistent across every available data source and survey, even where the precise numbers differ. The belief-versus-affiliation gap is in our belief in God in Great Britain analysis, referenced earlier.

Religion in England and Wales - Key Statistics

Frequently Asked Questions - Religion in England and Wales