Inflation in the UK 2026 — The Long Road Back to 2%
The United Kingdom has experienced one of the most dramatic inflation cycles in its modern economic history, with consumer prices surging from under 1% in early 2021 to an extraordinary 11.1% in October 2022 — the highest rate since November 1981 — before embarking on a prolonged but uneven disinflation journey that has brought headline CPI to 3.0% in January 2026. While this represents a remarkable decline of over 8 percentage points from the peak, the UK's inflation rate remains stubbornly above the Bank of England's 2% target and notably higher than in many comparable European economies, where disinflation has progressed more quickly and more completely. France, for example, achieved an annual average CPI of just 0.9% in 2025, while eurozone inflation as a whole fell to 1.7% in January 2026, meaning the UK continues to be an inflation outlier among advanced economies. The persistence of above-target inflation reflects the UK's unique structural vulnerabilities: heavy dependence on imported natural gas for both heating and electricity generation, a tight labour market that drove aggressive wage growth through 2023-2024, and a weaker sterling that made imports more expensive. The January 2026 reading of 3.0% was driven downward by softer transport costs, falling petrol prices, and moderating food inflation, but was held up by persistent pressures in services (4.4%), housing and utilities (4.5%), and restaurants and hotels (4.1%). For a broader perspective on how inflation has evolved across the European continent, see our inflation in Europe statistics.
The macroeconomic context surrounding UK inflation in 2026 is characterised by sluggish growth, rising unemployment, and an increasingly complex monetary policy environment. GDP grew 1.3% in 2025 — below the OBR's forecast of 1.5% — and the economy effectively stalled in the second half of the year, with just 0.1% quarterly growth in both Q3 and Q4 2025. Unemployment has risen to 5.2% — the highest since late 2020 — with particularly sharp increases among younger workers, where the rate has reached 16% for those aged 16-24. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has cut interest rates by 1.5 percentage points since August 2024, bringing the Bank Rate to 3.75%, but the pace of cuts has slowed as the MPC balances the need to support a weakening economy against the risk that inflation remains persistent. The February 2026 MPC meeting saw a 5-4 vote to hold rates unchanged, reflecting genuine disagreement about the appropriate policy stance. On the fiscal side, the UK faces its own challenges: public sector net debt stands at 92.9% of GDP, the government deficit remains elevated, and the Autumn Budget 2025 introduced significant tax increases — including higher employer National Insurance contributions — that are weighing on business confidence and hiring. The energy price cap for Q1 2026 sets a typical dual fuel bill at £1,758 per year, and while this will fall 7% to £1,641 from April 2026 following the government's removal of green levies from energy bills, household energy costs remain approximately 35% above pre-crisis levels. This persistent elevation of living costs continues to weigh on consumer sentiment and household spending, even as headline inflation numbers gradually improve. The UK's inflation challenge is therefore not simply about the headline rate returning to target, but about rebuilding household purchasing power that has been severely eroded by a cumulative price increase of over 20% since 2021. For a detailed look at how UK financial conditions are evolving alongside these inflation dynamics, see our financial markets in the UK statistics.
UK Inflation Timeline 2019-2025 — From Stability to Crisis and Back
The trajectory of UK inflation over the 2019-2025 period tells the story of an economy that was hit harder and recovered more slowly than most of its peers from the greatest inflationary shock in a generation. In 2019, CPI inflation averaged a benign 1.8%, slightly below the Bank of England's 2% target, reflecting the relatively stable price environment that had characterised the post-financial-crisis era despite the ongoing uncertainty of the Brexit process. The pandemic year of 2020 pushed inflation down to just 0.9% as lockdowns suppressed demand, particularly in hospitality, travel, and discretionary retail — though unlike some eurozone countries, the UK avoided outright deflation. The recovery phase in 2021 saw inflation rise to 2.6% as supply chain bottlenecks, pent-up demand, and rising global commodity prices began to push up costs, though the worst was yet to come. The 2022 inflation shock was devastating: the annual average reached 9.1%, with the monthly rate peaking at 11.1% in October — driven by the explosive rise in natural gas prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which hit the UK's gas-dependent economy with particular severity. The government's Emergency Price Guarantee, which capped typical household energy bills at £2,500 from October 2022, prevented even higher headline figures but cost the Treasury an estimated £40 billion. Inflation remained painfully elevated at 7.3% in 2023, with food inflation reaching an extraordinary 19.1% in March 2023 — the highest since 1977 — before gradually declining through the year. The disinflation process gained momentum in 2024, with the annual average falling to 2.6%, though the path was uneven with services inflation proving notably resistant to decline. By 2025, the annual average was approximately 3.5% — still above target and above the eurozone average — reflecting the persistent nature of UK-specific inflationary pressures. For broader context on how central bank policy responses have shaped these dynamics globally, see our central banks statistics.
Annual CPI Inflation Rate 2019-2025 — The Surge and Retreat
The annual bar chart below illustrates the dramatic amplitude of the UK's inflation cycle, with the 2022 reading of 9.1% towering over the sub-2% levels that preceded the crisis. The decline from 9.1% in 2022 to 3.5% in 2025 represents substantial progress, but the persistence of above-target inflation distinguishes the UK from countries like France (0.9%), Switzerland, and several northern European economies that have already returned to or below their target rates. The UK's higher and more persistent inflation reflects a combination of structural factors including its energy mix, labour market dynamics, the post-Brexit trade friction that has added to import costs, and the lagged impact of sterling depreciation during the crisis period that made imports more expensive in a country that runs a persistent trade deficit.
Monthly CPI Trend 2024-2026 — The Bumpy Descent
The monthly CPI data reveals a far more volatile picture than annual averages suggest, with the UK's disinflation path characterised by starts and stops that have repeatedly challenged market expectations and complicated the Bank of England's rate-setting decisions. After starting 2024 at around 4.0%, headline CPI fell steadily to reach 1.7% in September 2024 — briefly dipping below the 2% target for the first time since April 2021 — before rebounding sharply through the autumn and winter. By October 2025, CPI had climbed back to 3.8%, driven by rising energy bills as the Ofgem price cap increased, persistent services inflation, and accelerating food costs fuelled by global commodity price pressures from cocoa, coffee, and weather-disrupted crop yields. The descent from the October 2025 peak has been encouraging: CPI fell to 3.2% in November, ticked up to 3.4% in December (due to timing effects in alcohol and tobacco duties), then dropped meaningfully to 3.0% in January 2026 — the lowest reading since March 2025. The January decline was driven by softer transport costs (fuel prices falling and air fare inflation moderating), a sharp drop in food inflation from 4.5% to 3.6%, and easing housing and utility costs. On a monthly basis, prices actually fell 0.5% in January 2026, driven by post-Christmas sales effects. The Bank of England's February 2026 projections indicate CPI inflation should fall to around 2.1% by Q2 2026, benefiting from the government's removal of green levies from energy bills in April and favourable base effects, though the recent escalation of Middle East tensions and their impact on oil prices represents a significant upside risk to this forecast.
CPI by Component — Services 4.4%, Food 3.6%, Housing 4.5%
The disaggregation of UK consumer prices reveals that the persistence of above-target inflation is driven almost entirely by domestic services and shelter costs, while goods inflation has moderated substantially and is now close to pre-crisis norms. Services inflation at 4.4% in January 2026 remains the single largest contributor to above-target CPI and is the metric the Bank of England watches most closely when setting monetary policy, as services prices are considered to reflect domestic cost pressures rather than imported commodity price shocks. Within services, the key drivers are rents (both actual and imputed), restaurant and café prices (up 4.1% driven by labour costs and food input inflation), and education costs (up 7.6%, the fastest-rising category in the entire CPI basket, largely reflecting the impact of VAT being applied to private school fees from January 2025). Housing and household services at 4.5% reflect the combined impact of elevated mortgage interest payments, rising actual rents (up 3.8%), and household maintenance costs. Food and non-alcoholic beverages at 3.6% have been declining from the 4.5% December reading but remain well above the headline rate, with chocolate prices up 17% year-on-year reflecting the surge in global cocoa prices during 2025. Transport at 2.7% provided the largest downward contribution to the January reading, as motor fuel prices fell and air fare inflation moderated from the December spike. Goods inflation at 1.6% has normalised substantially, reflecting global goods disinflation driven by weak Chinese demand, falling shipping costs, and a gradual unwinding of post-pandemic supply constraints. The divergence between sticky services inflation and normalising goods prices is a pattern seen across most advanced economies, but is particularly pronounced in the UK, where services account for approximately 60% of the CPI basket and where wage growth has been stronger than in the eurozone. This structural composition means that even as energy and goods prices normalise, the UK's return to 2% inflation is heavily dependent on services price deceleration, which in turn requires continued moderation in wage growth and domestic demand pressures.
UK CPI Inflation by Category — January 2026
The horizontal bar chart below shows the wide dispersion of inflation rates across CPI categories in January 2026, from education at 7.6% to clothing and footwear in deflation at -0.6%. This dispersion highlights the fact that the "average" inflation rate of 3.0% masks very different experiences for different households depending on their spending patterns. Lower-income households, who spend a disproportionate share of their budgets on food and energy, continue to face an effective inflation rate well above the headline figure, while higher-income households benefit more from falling goods prices and have greater capacity to absorb services inflation through discretionary spending adjustments.
UK Energy Crisis — Bills Still 35% Above Pre-Crisis Levels
Energy has been at the heart of the UK's inflation crisis, and while household bills have fallen significantly from their crisis-era peaks, they remain a substantial burden on household budgets and a source of ongoing inflationary pressure. The UK's heavy dependence on natural gas — which heats approximately 74% of homes and until recently was the largest source of electricity generation — made it uniquely vulnerable to the gas price shock triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Unlike France, which generates 70% of its electricity from nuclear power, or Norway, which relies almost entirely on hydroelectric generation, the UK had no structural buffer against the wholesale gas price surge that saw prices increase by over 500% at their peak. The government responded with the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG), which capped typical household bills at £2,500 per year from October 2022 to June 2023 — an intervention estimated to have cost approximately £40 billion — before transitioning to Ofgem's quarterly price cap mechanism. The price cap for Q1 2026 stands at £1,758 per year for a typical dual fuel household paying by direct debit, comprising average electricity costs of 27.7p per kilowatt hour and gas costs of 5.9p per kWh. From April 2026, the cap falls 7% to £1,641, helped by the government's decision in the Autumn Budget 2025 to remove the Energy Company Obligation (ECO) levy and shift green levies from energy bills to general taxation — saving an estimated £134-150 per typical household. Despite these reductions, household energy bills remain approximately 35% higher in real terms than before the energy crisis, representing a permanent step-change in the cost of living that has not been reversed by the decline in wholesale energy prices. The standing charge alone — covering network maintenance and failed supplier costs — amounts to approximately £336 per year for a dual fuel connection before any energy is consumed, a figure that has become a significant source of public frustration and political debate.
The UK's energy transition is gradually reshaping the generation mix in ways that should provide greater insulation from future gas price shocks. Wind power overtook natural gas as the UK's largest source of electricity generation in 2024, a historic milestone that reflects the rapid expansion of both onshore and offshore wind capacity. In 2025, the generation mix was approximately 35% wind (with offshore wind accounting for the majority), 30% natural gas, 15% nuclear, 12% solar and other renewables, and 8% imports and other sources. However, gas remains the marginal price-setting fuel for electricity in most periods, meaning that even as its share of generation falls, it continues to disproportionately influence electricity wholesale prices — a structural feature of the UK's electricity market design that policymakers are increasingly seeking to reform. The housing component of inflation extends beyond energy bills: mortgage interest payments have risen sharply as the Bank of England raised rates from 0.1% to 5.25% before beginning its cutting cycle, and private rents are rising at 3.8% nationally, with significantly higher rates in major urban centres. The rental market has been under intense pressure from constrained supply (as higher interest rates and tax changes have prompted some landlords to exit the market) and strong demand (as high mortgage rates have kept potential first-time buyers in the rental market longer). For context on how interest rate movements globally are shaping housing affordability and inflation dynamics, see our dedicated analysis.
UK Electricity Generation Mix — 2025
The donut chart below illustrates the UK's evolving electricity generation mix, with wind power now the dominant source at 35% — a remarkable transformation from a decade ago when gas dominated at over 40%. The growth of renewables has been one of the UK's genuine economic success stories, with the country hosting the world's largest offshore wind farms. However, the continued reliance on gas as the marginal price-setting fuel means that the UK electricity market remains exposed to global gas price movements despite the declining share of gas in the generation mix, a paradox that is driving debate about electricity market reform and the potential for renewables to break the link between gas prices and consumer electricity bills.
Food Inflation in the UK — 3.6% With Cocoa and Coffee Surging
Food inflation has been one of the most politically sensitive and personally impactful dimensions of the UK's cost of living crisis, and while it has declined dramatically from its crisis-era peaks, it remains a persistent source of household budget pressure that is eroding real living standards for millions of families. In January 2026, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices were rising at 3.6% — down significantly from the 4.5% recorded in December and the lowest reading since April 2025 — but still above the headline CPI rate of 3.0% and well above the pre-crisis norm of approximately 1-2%. The January decline was driven by falling prices for bread, cereals, cakes, biscuits, and breakfast cereals, reflecting the normalisation of global grain prices and increased competition among UK supermarkets. However, several categories remain under intense upward pressure: chocolate prices surged 17% year-on-year in November 2025 (the latest available breakdown), reflecting the unprecedented spike in global cocoa prices during 2025 that saw cocoa futures reach record levels due to crop diseases and weather disruptions in West Africa. Coffee prices have similarly been elevated, driven by drought in Brazil and Vietnam that reduced global arabica and robusta production. The cumulative impact of food inflation since 2021 has been staggering: food prices have risen by approximately 30-36% over the past four to five years, according to the Food Foundation's Basic Basket tracker, meaning that a weekly shop that cost £40 in 2021 now costs approximately £53. This cumulative price increase has not been reversed — and will not be, since disinflation means prices are rising more slowly, not falling — representing a permanent reduction in the food purchasing power of UK households. According to the Food Standards Agency, food prices were the top consumer concern in December 2025, with 92% of consumers citing food costs as a worry and 60% describing themselves as "highly concerned" — the highest level since tracking began in 2023. For context on how the global economy's dynamics are shaping commodity prices and supply chains that affect UK food costs, see our global economy statistics.
Looking ahead, the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) projects that retail food inflation will average 4.4% across 2026, falling to approximately 3.1% by December 2026. While this represents a gradual normalisation, it would still leave food price growth above the Bank of England's 2% target and means that UK consumers will continue to experience rising prices at the supermarket checkout throughout the year. Several factors will influence the food inflation trajectory in 2026: global agricultural commodity prices remain volatile, with cocoa and coffee showing early signs of moderation but remaining far above historical averages; domestic labour costs in the food production and retail sectors continue to rise, driven by minimum wage increases (the National Living Wage rising to £12.21 from April 2026) and higher employer NICs; and the post-Brexit trade friction continues to add approximately 6% to food import costs compared to the pre-departure counterfactual, according to academic estimates from the London School of Economics. The UK's position as a net food importer — importing approximately 46% of its food supply — means it remains structurally exposed to global commodity price volatility and sterling fluctuations in a way that more self-sufficient agricultural economies are not. The distributional impact of persistent food inflation is particularly concerning: lower-income households spend approximately 16-17% of their budgets on food compared to around 10% for higher-income households, meaning that food inflation acts as a regressive tax that disproportionately burdens those least able to absorb it.
UK Economy 2026 — GDP 1.3%, Unemployment Rising to 5.2%
The UK economy enters 2026 in a fragile state, with growth stalling, unemployment rising, and the labour market undergoing a significant adjustment that has implications for both inflation dynamics and household welfare. GDP grew 1.3% in 2025 — an improvement on the 1.1% recorded in 2024 but below the OBR's forecast of 1.5% — with momentum deteriorating markedly in the second half of the year as quarterly growth slumped to just 0.1% in both Q3 and Q4. The economy's slowdown reflects multiple headwinds: higher employer National Insurance contributions announced in the Autumn Budget 2025 have weighed on hiring intentions, global trade uncertainty (particularly around US tariff policy) has dampened export demand and business investment, and consumers have remained cautious despite modest real income growth. Business investment fell 2.7% in Q4 2025, though it grew 3.5% across the year as a whole, suggesting that the late-year decline may partly reflect anticipatory effects ahead of the Budget's tax changes. The manufacturing sector grew 0.9% in Q4 — a relative bright spot — while services output was flat and construction fell by 2.1%, its largest decline since 2021. The OBR forecasts GDP growth of 1.4% in 2026, though independent forecasters are more cautious with an average prediction of just 1.1%, and EY ITEM Club projects only 0.9%. Growth is expected to be supported by lower interest rates, the phased fiscal loosening from higher government spending, and improving real household incomes as inflation falls, but constrained by fiscal tightening in later years, persistent global uncertainty, and subdued business confidence. The UK's GDP per capita has barely grown since 2019, reflecting a lost half-decade of living standards improvement that has fuelled public discontent and political debate about the effectiveness of economic policy. For context on where the UK stands relative to other major economies, see our countries with the largest GDP worldwide analysis.
Labour Market — Unemployment at Highest Since 2020
The UK labour market has undergone a notable deterioration over the past year, with unemployment rising from approximately 4.0% in early 2025 to 5.2% in the three months to December 2025 — the highest rate since late 2020 and 330,000 higher than a year earlier. The total number of unemployed people reached 1.9 million, with the increase spread across all age groups but particularly concentrated among younger workers: 739,000 people aged 16-24 were unemployed, a rate of 16% — an increase of almost 100,000 from a year ago and the highest youth unemployment rate since 2015. By contrast, the unemployment rate for those aged over 25 is a more moderate 3.6%, highlighting the disproportionate impact of the economic slowdown on younger and entry-level workers. Several factors are driving the labour market weakening: the increase in employer NICs from April 2025 has raised the cost of employment significantly, particularly for lower-paid workers; the rapid expansion of the National Living Wage (with a 16.3% increase for 18-20 year-olds in April 2025) has, according to some employers, priced younger workers out of certain roles; sluggish economic growth has reduced demand for labour across multiple sectors; and the growing adoption of artificial intelligence and automation is beginning to affect some categories of employment. Average wages excluding bonuses rose 4.2% in the three months to December 2025, providing a real wage increase of approximately 0.8% after adjusting for inflation of 3.4%. Private sector regular pay growth has slowed to 3.6% and is expected to continue moderating toward 3.0-3.1% by end-2026, which would be consistent with the Bank of England's assessment that wage dynamics are becoming less inflationary.
UK inflation at 3.0% remains roughly double France's 1.0% — and the gap is structural. France's 70% nuclear electricity shields it from gas price volatility, while the UK's 74% gas-heated homes make it acutely exposed. UK services inflation at 4.4% dwarfs France's 1.6%, reflecting stronger UK wage growth (4.2% vs ~2-3%) and a tighter labour market. Post-Brexit trade friction adds ~6% to food import costs. The result: the UK may not sustainably reach 2% until mid-2026 at the earliest, while France has been below target since 2025. For comparison see our inflation in Spain statistics.
UK CPI Components — January 2026 vs 2025 Average
The sortable table below provides a comprehensive comparison of inflation rates across all major CPI categories in January 2026 versus their 2025 annual averages and crisis-era peaks. The data clearly shows the divergence between normalising goods inflation and persistent services inflation that defines the UK's current inflation challenge. Education at 7.6% leads all categories, largely a one-off effect of VAT on private school fees, while clothing and footwear at -0.6% is the only category in outright deflation, reflecting global goods disinflation and intense retail competition. The "trend" column highlights that most categories are on a declining trajectory, with services being the critical exception where progress has been frustratingly slow from the Bank of England's perspective.
| Category | Jan 2026 % | 2025 Avg % | Peak 2022-23 % | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education | 7.6% | ~5.5% | ~5.5% | VAT effect |
| Alcohol/Tobacco | 5.2% | ~4.8% | ~5.9% | Duty driven |
| Housing/Utilities | 4.5% | ~5.0% | ~9.0% | Falling |
| Services (all) | 4.4% | ~4.6% | 7.4% | Sticky |
| Restaurants/Hotels | 4.1% | ~3.9% | ~10.0% | Rising |
| Food/Beverages | 3.6% | ~4.2% | 19.1% | Falling |
| Headline CPI | 3.0% | 3.5% | 11.1% | Falling |
| Core CPI | 3.1% | ~3.4% | 7.1% | Falling |
| Transport | 2.7% | ~3.5% | ~7.5% | Falling |
| Recreation/Culture | 2.6% | ~3.0% | ~5.5% | Stable |
| Goods (all) | 1.6% | ~2.0% | ~9.0% | Normalising |
| Clothing/Footwear | -0.6% | ~0.2% | ~7.5% | Deflation |
UK Inflation — Key Statistics at a Glance
The following stat cards summarise the most critical data points defining the UK's inflation landscape in 2026. These numbers tell the story of an economy that has made substantial progress in taming the worst inflation crisis in four decades but still faces a challenging final stretch before achieving sustained price stability at the Bank of England's 2% target. The persistence of services inflation, the structural elevation of energy costs, and the cumulative impact of four years of above-target price increases on household living standards remain the defining challenges of the current economic moment.
UK Inflation Forecast 2026-2028 — The Path to Target
The consensus inflation forecast for the UK projects a meaningful decline in headline CPI through 2026, with the rate expected to reach or approach the 2% target by the middle of the year before potentially fluctuating around that level through 2027 and 2028. The Bank of England's February 2026 projections indicate CPI inflation falling to approximately 2.1% by Q2 2026, benefiting from three key factors: the removal of green levies from energy bills in April 2026 (reducing household energy costs by an estimated £134-150), favourable base effects as the high energy price readings from 2025 drop out of the annual comparison, and continued moderation in services inflation as wage growth decelerates. However, the BoE is cautious about declaring victory, noting that services inflation at 4.4% remains well above the level consistent with the 2% target and that underlying measures of inflationary pressure have ticked up slightly in recent data. The OBR projects average CPI of 2.5% for 2026, falling to 2.0% in 2027 and remaining at target through 2028-2029. Independent forecasters surveyed by HM Treasury in February 2026 expect inflation of 2.2% in Q4 2026, broadly consistent with the official projections. The key risks to the forecast are weighted to the upside in the near term: the escalation of Middle East tensions could push oil and gas prices significantly higher, with the Bank of England estimating that a sustained 10% rise in energy prices would add 0.1-0.2 percentage points to headline inflation; potential US tariffs on UK exports could disrupt trade patterns and push up import costs; and the April 2026 increase in the National Living Wage (to £12.21) and employer NICs could reignite services inflation through higher business costs being passed to consumers. On the downside, a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown could accelerate disinflation beyond forecasts, and the continued global goods deflation from Chinese manufacturing competition could provide additional disinflationary pressure. For the Bank of England, the path of interest rates is closely tied to the inflation outlook: markets currently expect two to three further 25bp cuts in 2026, bringing the Bank Rate to approximately 3.0-3.25% by year-end, though the MPC has signalled that the pace of cuts will remain "gradual and careful" given the persistence of services inflation and the uncertainty around global energy markets. The broader implications for monetary policy coordination across advanced economies remain a central theme for financial market participants and policymakers alike.
Frequently Asked Questions — Inflation in the UK
The UK's CPI inflation rate was 3.0% in January 2026, down from 3.4% in December 2025. This is the lowest reading since March 2025. Core inflation stands at 3.1%, services inflation at 4.4%, and CPIH (including owner occupiers' housing costs) at 3.2%. The RPI rate was 3.8%.
UK inflation remains elevated due to persistent services inflation at 4.4%, driven by strong wage growth and domestic cost pressures. Food prices remain above headline at 3.6%, energy bills are still 35% above pre-crisis levels, and post-Brexit trade friction has structurally increased import costs. The UK's heavy reliance on gas for heating (74% of homes) makes it particularly vulnerable to energy price volatility.
The Bank of England forecasts CPI to fall to 2.1% by Q2 2026, supported by lower energy bills from April and base effects. The OBR projects an average of 2.5% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027. However, risks from Middle East energy disruptions, US tariffs, and persistent services inflation could delay the return to target.
UK GDP grew 1.3% in 2025 but stalled in the second half with just 0.1% quarterly growth. Forecasts range from 0.9% to 1.4% for 2026. Unemployment has risen to 5.2% — the highest since late 2020 — with youth unemployment at 16%. The Bank Rate is 3.75% after 1.5 percentage points of cuts since August 2024.
The Ofgem energy price cap for Q1 2026 is £1,758 per year for a typical dual fuel household. From April 2026 this falls 7% to £1,641 after the government removed green levies from bills. Despite reductions, bills remain approximately 35% above pre-crisis levels. Electricity costs 27.7p/kWh and gas 5.9p/kWh under the Q1 cap.
Primary: ONS - Consumer Price Inflation January 2026
Primary: Bank of England - Monetary Policy Report February 2026
Primary: Ofgem - Energy Price Cap Q2 2026
Supporting: OBR Economic & Fiscal Outlook Nov 2025 · House of Commons Library Economic Indicators · HM Treasury Forecasts for the UK Economy · EY ITEM Club Winter Forecast 2026 · Goldman Sachs UK Economic Outlook · KPMG UK Economic Outlook Dec 2025 · Food Foundation Price Tracker Feb 2026